Skip to main content
The Globe and Mail
Get full access to
Support quality journalism
Just $1.99 per week for the first 24weeks
Just $1.99 per week for the first 24weeks
The Globe and Mail
Support quality journalism
Get full access to
Globe and Mail website displayed on various devices
per week
for the first 24weeks

var select={root:".js-sub-pencil",control:".js-sub-pencil-control",open:"o-sub-pencil--open",closed:"o-sub-pencil--closed"},dom={},allowExpand=!0;function pencilInit(o){var e=arguments.length>1&&void 0!==arguments[1]&&arguments[1];select.root=o,dom.root=document.querySelector(select.root),dom.root&&(dom.control=document.querySelector(select.control),dom.control.addEventListener("click",onToggleClicked),setPanelState(e),window.addEventListener("scroll",onWindowScroll),dom.root.removeAttribute("hidden"))}function isPanelOpen(){return dom.root.classList.contains(}function setPanelState(o){dom.root.classList[o?"add":"remove"](,dom.root.classList[o?"remove":"add"](select.closed),dom.control.setAttribute("aria-expanded",o)}function onToggleClicked(){var l=!isPanelOpen();setPanelState(l)}function onWindowScroll(){console.log("scroll");var l=isPanelOpen(),n=0===(document.body.scrollTop||document.documentElement.scrollTop);n||l||!allowExpand?n&&l&&(allowExpand=!0,setPanelState(!1)):(allowExpand=!1,setPanelState(!0))}pencilInit(".js-sub-pencil",!1);

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau (L), NDP leader Thomas Mulcair (C) and Progressive Conservative leader Stephen Harper pose for a photo opportunity prior to the beginning of the Globe and Mail Leaders Debate in Calgary, Alberta September 17, 2015. Depending on the election’s outcome, different stocks stand to benefit.


This is the Globe's daily election newsletter. Find out how to sign up here.


By PAUL FAIRIE(@paulisci)

Story continues below advertisement

Who won the debate?

Public opinion data has been streaming in since the federal leaders' debate last Thursday, and all evidence suggests that voters remain as divided as ever.

On the simple question of who won, Forum found that 23 per cent of respondents chose Stephen Harper, 22 per cent said Justin Trudeau and 18 per cent selected Thomas Mulcair. Yet, the poll gives little reason for any party to celebrate since the largest group of Canadians – 30 per cent – said that none of them had won.

Additionally, this question is less a measure of debate prowess and more a marker of pre-existing preferences, as most people conveniently reported that their favourite party's leader won the debate.

A better measure of who won can be seen by looking at who moved the most votes. Here, too, signals are mixed. While the Nanos three-day tracking poll showed its usual three-way race, Ipsos had the Liberals taking a small lead. The last time they had the Liberals in first was back in late May when they were tied at 31 per cent with the Conservatives. Similarly, the Liberals continue their gradual improvement in the Globe Election Forecast.

All said, polling numbers suggest Canadians are still faced with the possibility of the closest three-way race in history.


Story continues below advertisement

Nik Nanos: "Close race continues, Liberals and Conservatives numerically tied."

> Conservatives: 31.5 per cent (up 2.5 from last week)

> NDP: 29.1 per cent (down 2.5 from last week)

> Liberals: 31.6 per cent (up 1.5 from last week)

> Green: 4.2 per cent (down 1.3 from last week)

> Bloc: 2.6 per cent (down 0.2 from last week)

Story continues below advertisement

The margin of error is 2.8 points. Click here for Nanos methodology


By Chris Hannay (@channay)

> The Liberal Leader and the Liberal Party of Canada have struggled to connect with voters in Quebec. If there is a turnaround to be had, it will start Thursday evening with the first of two French-language debates.

> A Conservative goal of 1.3 million new jobs is possible, economists say, but it would require strong economic growth to accomplish it.

> Hillary Clinton is against Keystone XL.

Story continues below advertisement

> Former Surrey mayor Dianne Watts, now running federally for the Conservatives, is defending a party flyer that promises the Tories will "fight jihadist terrorists at home and abroad" and warns voters "will not feel secure in your bedrooms."

> Gilles Duceppe says he'd use the notwithstanding clause to support a ban on niqabs in citizenship ceremonies if need be.

> Former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page hasn't exactly endorsed the New Democrat's fiscal policy framework, but says he is indebted to party Leader Tom Mulcair for having his back when his office's budget was slashed.


Conservative support craters in Ontario, leaving the NDP to win a small plurality of 131 seats and the Liberals the chance to become the opposition with 111 seats. Try your hand at our simulator and find out what could happen if an election were held today.

Overall, the NDP currently have a 41 per cent chance of winning the most seats.

Story continues below advertisement


Party leaders are preparing for Thursday night's French-language debate in Montreal. Thomas Mulcair begins the day with a meeting with Mayor Denis Coderre, before giving a speech at 12:30 p.m. ET. Justin Trudeau gives a speech at noon.


For 10 years, Ontario Ombudsman André Marin was a thorn in the side of the governing Liberals. Dalton McGuinty tried and failed to get rid of him. But now he's gone. Queen's Park reporter Adrian Morrow explains how Kathleen Wynne finally turfed one of the government's most tenacious critics.


"Basically, then, the Conservatives gave the [Terry Fox] foundation what it wanted – a campaign-trail commitment for funding if re-elected – except the party went rogue and did it without the foundation's oversight. Other than that, it is difficult to see a significant difference between what happened and what was supposed to happen. So what's the problem?" – The Globe editorial board on a campaign dispute.

Story continues below advertisement

Anna Lennox Esselment (Globe and Mail): "Studies have also shown that those people most likely to vote do so because it is habit; this particular habit should be formed at the earliest opportunity."

Gerald Caplan (Globe and Mail): "Every time I hear someone say the NDP is in the lead and this election could be won by any of the three parties, I begin to shake all over."

Lysiane Gagnon (Globe and Mail): "Is Stephen Harper a "racist" for having used the expression "old-stock Canadians"? If he is, then I am."

Jeffrey Simpson (Publication): "Conservatives will need a heavy dose of caffeine or a stiff Scotch whisky to get through the first hour of election night. After that first hour, things will improve for Conservatives as results spill in from elsewhere. Those returns in the first hour or so from Atlantic Canada, however, are likely to range between bad and brutal for the governing party."


The French-language consortium debate will be held on Thursday.

The election is in 26 days.

This newsletter is produced by Chris Hannay and Steve Proceviat.

Welcome to the new Globe Politics newsletter! Read more about the changes and let us know what you think.

Report an error Editorial code of conduct
Due to technical reasons, we have temporarily removed commenting from our articles. We hope to have this fixed soon. Thank you for your patience. If you are looking to give feedback on our new site, please send it along to If you want to write a letter to the editor, please forward to

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff. Non-subscribers can read and sort comments but will not be able to engage with them in any way. Click here to subscribe.

If you would like to write a letter to the editor, please forward it to Readers can also interact with The Globe on Facebook and Twitter .

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff. Non-subscribers can read and sort comments but will not be able to engage with them in any way. Click here to subscribe.

If you would like to write a letter to the editor, please forward it to Readers can also interact with The Globe on Facebook and Twitter .

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff.

We aim to create a safe and valuable space for discussion and debate. That means:

  • Treat others as you wish to be treated
  • Criticize ideas, not people
  • Stay on topic
  • Avoid the use of toxic and offensive language
  • Flag bad behaviour

Comments that violate our community guidelines will be removed.

Read our community guidelines here

Discussion loading ...

To view this site properly, enable cookies in your browser. Read our privacy policy to learn more.
How to enable cookies