Progressive Conservative leader Stephen Harper, greets Liberal leader Justin Trudeau prior to the beginning of the Globe and Mail Leaders Debate in Calgary on Sept.17, 2015.MIKE STURK/Reuters
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CAMPAIGN NOTEBOOK
By Paul Fairie (@paulisci)
The decline in the polls by the NDP has broken the three-way race of the last few weeks into a Conservative-Liberal contest. While their national decline isn't enormous (they are only down by about 4 percentage points), such a decline can be fatal in such a close contest.
Opinion polls reveal the source of the decline is Quebec. In the three-day rolling Nanos poll ending September 9, the NDP were polling at 50 per cent; the poll ending September 29 had them at 34 per cent. Given that the party is otherwise polling near to their 2011 level in most regions outside Quebec, losing 8.5 percentage points in the province that provided them a majority of their caucus would be fatal to the party's chances of finishing first nationally.
Much of the decline seems to be tied to the September 24th French language debate, which points to the way that the NDP might be able to save themselves: the French-language debate to be held on Friday, Oct. 2.
DAILY TRACKING FROM NANOS RESEARCH
Nik Nanos: "Conservatives and Liberals gripped in a tie for first, NDP trails."
> Conservatives: 32.8 per cent (up 2.3 from last week)
> NDP: 26.1 per cent (down 4.7 from last week)
> Liberals: 31.7 per cent (up 0.2 from last week)
> Green: 4.1 per cent (up 0.4 from last week)
> Bloc: 4.8 per cent (up 2.5 from last week)
The margin of error is 2.8 points. Click here for Nanos methodology.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW THIS MORNING
By Chris Hannay (@channay)
> The auto sector continues to be a major block in the Trans-Pacific Partnership talks, which are now in Atlanta.
> A new study says Quebec's child-care system - which the NDP is using as a model for its national proposal - could be linked to rising youth crime. But the study isn't without problems.
> The Liberals are distancing themselves from a prominent donor who is wanted by China.
> Tensions are emerging between the NDP and Unifor over the Saudi arms deal.
> Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi says Stephen Harper is playing a "dangerous" political game with the niqab.
TODAY'S ELECTION SIMULATION
The Conservatives collapse in Ontario and the NDP loses most of its seats outside Quebec, giving the Tories a plurality of 139 seats and the Liberals a resurgent 128. Try your hand at our simulator and find out what could happen if an election were held today.
Overall, the Conservatives currently have a 55-per-cent chance of winning the most seats.
WHERE THE LEADERS ARE
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper doesn't have any scheduled events so far, but cabinet minister Pierre Poilievre and other Ottawa-area candidates will talk about the public service at a morning announcement.
NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair will do a town hall in Montreal at 10 a.m.
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is in Montreal, where he will make a morning announcement.
BATTLEGROUND B.C.
One of the toughest battlegrounds in this election is British Columbia, a true three-way race. In such a close contest, Simon Doyle explains, the parties are focusing on how to get out the vote.
WHAT EVERYONE'S TALKING ABOUT
"The next government should compile a catalogue of mandatory minimums. Most are not needed, and Parliament should repeal those covering less than truly heinous offences. But the courts have to be careful to leave the bulk of policy-making to Parliament, and not turn every question into a constitutional one." – The Globe editorial board on mandatory minimums.
Barrie McKenna (Globe and Mail): "If companies were honest about the true cost of stopping the planet from further warming, the vast majority of the world's oil, gas and coal would never be dug out of the ground. "
Jeffrey Simpson (Globe and Mail): "The Liberal Party might not win the election, but to this point it has won the campaign."
David Parkinson (Globe and Mail): "If Mr. Harper has bet the economy heavily on one thing, it is you and me – the Canadian consumer."
Margaret Wente (Globe and Mail): "After 10 years of Mr. Harper's technocratic bloodlessness, Mr. Trudeau's sunny enthusiasm is a relief."
Paul Wells (Maclean's): "Trudeau's resurgence has been fuelled, at least in part, by his energetic performance in the proliferation of televised debates his Conservative and NDP foes conspired to foist on him, in a bid to trip up this youngest and least experienced of the national party leaders."
LOOKAHEAD: WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK
TVA hosts a French-language leaders' debate in Quebec on Friday.
Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks continue in Atlanta.
The election is in 18 days.
This newsletter is produced by Chris Hannay and Steve Proceviat.
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