George Smitherman is the biggest name to throw his hat in the ring of Toronto city politics in living memory. Seldom does a titan from a higher level of government, much less a deputy premier, deign to enter a contest usually dominated by city councillors, sitting mayors and other lesser beings.
The paradox is that for all his prominence, we understand very little about what kind of campaign he would run or what kind of mayor he would be. A familiar, often larger-than-life character in provincial politics, he is an unknown quantity to city voters.
Mr. Smitherman can't expect a royal progress to the mayor's chair unless he defines himself. Who is this guy? Is he a man of the left, right or centre? What does he think of the controversial reign of Mayor David Miller or the rancorous city strike that spoiled Mr. Miller's chance of winning a third term? What would he do about the roughly half-billion-dollar shortfall in the city budget: raise taxes, cut services, take on the police and firefighters over their generous pay and benefits?
As a powerful cabinet minister in a majority government, used to running his own show, how would he get things done in a fractious city council with no party system? "Furious George," as he is often called at Queen's Park because of his towering temper, could no longer simply say "make it so" and expect everyone to fall into line.
Mr. Smitherman surely knows all this. A politico since high school, he understands he has to form a campaign identity and he is already making a start.
When he unveiled his plans yesterday to enter civic politics, he suggested that his provincial experience at controlling health budgets would help him keep the city out of red ink.
In the past week at City Hall, he said, "you could see people starting to flail about with the fiscal challenges," he said. "And to too many people, the first instinct is more tax and the like. I think the experience I have in taming hospital deficits in the province of Ontario is something that will hold me in good stead."
He also said it was a "tremendous lapse in judgment" when City Council decided this year not to roll back their salaries as a group, instead leaving it to individual councillors whether to accept a standard annual raise.
On where he stands, politically, he said he would try to move beyond left-right, downtown-suburbs politics. "Obviously, I have to work to structure a campaign platform that seeks to be post-ideological, and to leap over this urban-suburban divide which I think is intensifying in our city. I think this is a very real threat to the notion of cohesion at City Council."
But these are only hints. What modern politician doesn't promise to be post-ideological? What campaigner doesn't frown on tax hikes?
The man expected to be Mr. Smitherman's chief opponent in next November's mayoral vote, former provincial Conservative leader John Tory, has an established record on civic issues. He ran an excellent campaign for mayor in 2003 and, this fall, has been broadcasting his views as a lunchtime speaker and talk-show host.
Those conservative (but tolerant, urban conservative) views put him in a good position to run as the anti-Miller, someone who would take the city in sharply different direction after seven years of the union-friendly, leftish mayor. Mr. Smitherman, by contrast, will have to show how replacing one downtown liberal with another will make a difference to Canada's biggest city.
Mr. Smitherman may be a big name but, in the next year, he will need to tell voters he has more than a commanding presence and a gift of the gab. He will need to show that he has sophisticated ideas about the complex question of how to make Toronto work. The city awaits.
Marcus Gee