Pantalone says he's in it to the end

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Joe Pantalone has no intention of catching the dropout fever afflicting Toronto's mayoral race.

A little more than 12 hours after Rocco Rossi succumbed to it, the diminutive deputy mayor unveiled a steady-as-she-goes budget plan with a 2.5-per-cent tax hike at a meeting of The Globe and Mail's editorial board.

He rolled out a new catchphrase, too.

"My view is there are two visions," he said, "and three candidates."

The new line is meant to separate Mr. Pantalone's program of maintaining city services and modestly raising taxes next year from his rivals' plans to cut or freeze taxes and gut city staffing levels through attrition.

It's also meant to remind voters that there is, in fact, a third choice in the Oct. 25 election, even if a recent Newstalk 1010/Ipsos-Reid poll shows only two men have a genuine shot at succeeding David Miller - and Mr. Pantalone isn't one of them.

The poll of 400 Torontonians conducted over Thanksgiving weekend found Mr. Pantalone enjoyed the support of 11 per cent, well behind George Smitherman at 31 per cent and Rob Ford at 30 per cent.

It had a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Mr. Pantalone painted Mr. Rossi's withdrawal as good news for him.

"There used to be four candidates representing one view - that the system is so broken you've got to throw the baby out with the bathwater. It's that bad. And there was one, which was me, which was bringing forth a progressive point of view," he said. "Now there's two against one. I think the odds are a little bit better."

The veteran city councillor is hoping his financial plan will improve those odds.

The deputy mayor said his tax increase - coupled with a projected $180-million surplus for 2010, land sales and efficiencies - would make it possible for him to balance the books in 2011 without asking the province for a bailout.

"Joe Pantalone's plan raises the least number of questions for me," said Councillor Shelley Carroll, the budget chief. "This one looks the safest. The other [mayoral candidates]have huge ambitions for the first year, which leaves big questions for the following year."

Municipal finance staff say the next administration will need to find an extra $503-million to balance the 2011 operating budget. Mr. Pantalone has already promised that he would phase out the $60 vehicle-registration fee in his first term, freeze property taxes for seniors with a household income of $50,000 or less and enhance some services.

Together, those promises would bring the 2011 budget pressure to $541-million.

To fill the gap, Mr. Pantalone would raise $55-million by passing a residential property-tax increase of 2.5 per cent and a commercial/industrial property-tax increase of 0.833 per cent. Projected assessment growth of $35-million would add to the property-tax haul.

He would make up the rest with: 2009 surplus cash ($76-million); the projected 2010 surplus ($180-million); service efficiencies ($85-million); strategic land sales ($75-million); and a reduction in the amount of debt the city pays off ($35-million).

Ms. Carroll does disagree with the last point - she would rather the next mayor stick to paying off the debt as scheduled. "I would prefer to maintain that discipline," she said.