Here are three reasons why Mr. Tory has emerged as the front-runner for the Oct. 27 vote – and one reason you can’t write off Rob Ford.

Mr. Tory is focused heavily on transportation, transit and gridlock issues. And it so happens that the public is, too. The Nanos poll finds that Torontonians are obsessively interested in transportation, transit and gridlock, with fully half of those surveyed rating it the top issue – squeezing the usual interest in taxation and economic development. The message for candidates: whoever owns the transportation issue will be very difficult to beat.

The self-proclaimed Subway Mayor has had much to say about transportation too, including an ambitious plan revealed on Wednesday. But his escapades appear to have cost him a big slice of the coalition that brought him to power. Comparing the poll data on Mr. Ford’s broad support versus specific questions on trustworthiness and competence, the only conclusion is that even among his supporters, there are those who don’t think him the most honest or competent candidate.

With a professional campaign, deep roots in City Hall and two strong centre-right candidates, the left-leaning Ms. Chow should be enjoying the benefits of a split. So why is she in a fight with Mr. Ford for second place? Look at how her support drops when the question turns on controlling spending at city hall.

One question to be answered on Oct. 27 is whether voters will turn out in the east and west of the city, where Rob Ford still polls well. He’s still No. 1 in his home region of Etobicoke. And in Scarborough, to the east, Ford moves into first place on the question of “transit vision” (presumably because he championed a subway connection over the light rail connection favoured by planners and city councillors) and “most likely to keep campaign promises.”