The risk
For Canadians, the risk posed by pandemic influenza A/H1N1 is pretty minimal. The pandemic-alert phases refer strictly to the geographic spread of the flu. Australia is seeing the rapid spread of flu - and related panic - that we saw in Canada a month ago.
the duration
History tells us that pandemics strike like a tsunami - after the initial wave hits the real danger often comes with subsequent waves. Flu viruses typically travel from east to west around the world, and they begin in the southern hemisphere. A/H1N1 is different in that it was first spotted in North America. But some epidemiologists believe the spread of the disease is only now beginning in earnest.
THE NUMBERS
A pandemic means there is community spread of a novel pathogen in more than one region of the world. It has nothing to do with sheer numbers or severity of symptoms. Early in a pandemic, the numbers are important to judge how the virus is spreading, but the numbers are increasingly irrelevant. The reality is only the sickest people get tested and counted and, with A/H1N1, the evidence suggests that most cases are mild.
André Picard