Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is backed by his wife Ann and their sons as he addresses supporters at his New Hampshire primary night rally in Manchester, New Hampshire, January 10, 2012.
Mitt Romney spent the morning after his big win in the New Hampshire Republican primary lowering expectations for South Carolina, where the GOP contest moves next.
But as he heads south on Wednesday for an evening rally in Columbia, S.C. – after a Boston detour to meet with his formidable fundraising team – the ex-Massachusetts governor is looking more unbeatable than ever in the race for the GOP presidential nomination.
The stakes are high in the Jan. 21 South Carolina primary. Since 1980, no candidate has won the GOP nomination without winning the state.
Ten days is a long time in primary politics, and South Carolina has a reputation for unsavoury politics. But though he is playing down his chances, Mr. Romney is really looking to score a hat-trick and seal up the nomination by month's end.
He reportedly raised $25-million (U.S.) for his primary campaign in the final quarter of 2011. And his historic back-to-back wins in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary will only reinforce his fund-raising prowess.
Combined with the millions pumped into advertising by outside groups that support him – those controversial entities known as super political action committees – the pro-Romney forces have more financial firepower than all of Mr. Romney's rivals combined.
Expect them to use plenty of it to drown out the competition in South Carolina, especially Newt Gingrich, who now appears to be on a kamikaze mission to destroy Mr. Romney.
Mr. Gingrich finished in a fourth-place tie in New Hampshire with barely 9 per cent of the vote. But the former Georgia congressman and ex-speaker of the House of Representatives has natural advantages in a southern state close to home.
His campaign has launched a television ad campaign attacking the "Massachusetts moderate" and his support for abortion rights as governor. The ad is an open play for evangelical Christians, who make up half of the GOP electorate in South Carolina.
Mr. Gingrich and Texas governor Rick Perry, another embattled Southerner who is hoping for rebirth in South Carolina, are also attacking Mr. Romney's background as the head of Boston-based buy-out firm Bain Capital. Their attacks focus on South Carolina companies that went bust or laid off workers after Bain became an investor.
But will their two-pronged offensive against Mr. Romney work?
Mr. Romney and the super-PACS supporting him have developed muscular rebuttals to the attacks. In his New Hampshire victory speech, Mr. Romney fired back against the economic populism of his rivals and lumped them in with President Barack Obama.
"President Obama wants to put free enterprise on trial. In the last few days, we have seen some desperate Republicans join forces with him," Mr. Romney said. "I stand ready to lead us down a different path, where we are lifted up by our desire to succeed, not dragged down by a resentment of success."
That is a pretty powerful comeback. Given the Romney campaign's heavy reliance on focus group-tested pitches, it must work or they wouldn't use it.
The other factor working in Mr. Romney's favour in South Carolina is the legendary pragmatism of the state's Republicans. Despite the preponderance of social conservatives in the state, history shows they are not single-issue voters.
Indeed, in the 2008 primary there, John McCain and Mr. Romney together picked up almost half of the popular vote. Without another moderate Republican in the race this year – so far, John Huntsman is a mere blip in the polls there – Mr. Romney looks well-positioned to roll past a divided opposition in South Carolina.
Konrad Yakabuski