Sicily election thrusts Silvio Berlusconi back into the political limelight

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The perma-grin, the perma-tan, the swagger and the cheesy charm – Silvio Berlusconi is back and, once again, he's winning votes.

The four-time Italian prime minister isn't letting old age – he's 81 – an endless string of sex scandals and a conviction for tax fraud slow him down. Sunday's regional election in Sicily, the last big test before Italy's general election, expected some time between February and April, has thrust Mr. Berlusconi back into the political limelight.

It was won by a centre-right alliance led by Nello Musumeci, who will become Sicily's new governor. The alliance was put together by Mr. Berlusconi, and Mr. Musumeci is a member of Mr. Berlusconi's Forza Italia (Go Italy) party. Mr. Berlusconi campaigned hard in Sicily, and his effort paid off. "Many Italians think Berlusconi is immoral, but he's really rather immortal," said Francesco Galietti, chief executive of Policy Sonar, a public policy consultancy in Rome.

The three-party Forza Italia-led alliance took 39.9 per cent of the Sicilian vote, putting it 5.2 points ahead of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S). The centre-left Democratic Party, led by former prime minister Matteo Renzi, pretty much got destroyed, winning only 18.7 per cent. The result suggests that the general election will be a showdown between Mr. Berlusconi's centre-right forces and M5S, although Mr. Renzi's Democrats cannot entirely be ruled out of contention; they are more popular in northern Italy than they are in the economically depressed south, where M5S is coming on strong.

Mr. Berlusconi seemed to take credit for his alliance's Sicilian victory. "Sicily, just as I asked, has chosen the path of real, serious, constructive change, based on honesty, competence and experience," he said after the election, using Facebook.

Certainly, his campaign was clever. In the past, anti-Mafia candidates have done well in Sicily, but not this time. The last governor, the Democratic Party's Rosario Crocetta, built his political career on fighting the Cosa Nostra, as Sicily's Mafia is called, and survived several Cosa Nostra assassination plots. But the Cosa Nostra is a waning force – some 4,000 of them have been arrested since the 1990s – and Sicilians seemed ready for a new narrative. "This [the election result] is a sign that waving the anti-Mafia flag is no longer considered a priority for Sicilians," said Accursio Sabella, a journalist for the LiveSicilia website.

Mr. Berlusconi's Sicilian alliance instead used anti-immigrant rhetoric and the promise of jobs to lure voters – they barely mentioned the Mafia – and Mr. Berlusconi himself increased the employment bombast by promising Sicilians casinos and a bridge to the mainland. Never mind that the bridge has become a hollow promise. When he was prime minister, Mr. Berlusconi vowed many times that a bridge would come to boost tourism and trade. It never did.

Mr. Berlusconi made his billions on media and Italian soccer – he owned AC Milan, one of the world's most successful teams, until last year – and was first elected prime minister in 1994. His final stint lasted from 2008 to 2011, when he was essentially forced out during the height of the financial crisis and replaced by a technocrat leader assigned to spare the euro zone's third-largest economy from default.

There was never a dull moment in Mr. Berlusconi's nearly two decades at the top of Italian politics, during which he declared: "I am without doubt the person who's been the most persecuted in the entire history of the world and the history of man."

The list of accusations against him included Mafia association, business corruption, sex scandals (the infamous "bunga bunga" parties and allegedly soliciting sex from underage girls) and the illegal financing of political parties, almost all of which he beat. His conviction in 2013 of tax fraud meant he could not run for public office, though he has appealed to the European Court of Human Rights to overturn the ban. The court's decision is unlikely to come before the Italian election.

Outside of Italy, Mr. Berlusconi was best known for his often-hilarious gaffes, tasteless jokes and politically incorrect views. When Barack Obama was elected, he hailed the U.S. president-elect as "handsome, young and also suntanned." More recently, he described France's Emmanuel Macron as a "good looking lad with a good looking mom" – an apparent dig at the 24-year age difference between the new French President and his wife, Brigitte Trogneux.

In spite of his dubious economic and political record, there is no doubt Mr. Berlusconi has a talent for political opportunism. When he was sent packing in 2011, few Italians thought he would make a political comeback. He did, after biding his time.

His moment came this year when he saw a political vacuum forming by the retreat of the ruling Democratic Party, which was being ripped apart by infighting and the loss of last December's referendum on overhauling the Italian constitution. That vacuum was being filled by M5S, led by the firebrand comedian Beppe Grillo.

Mr. Berslusconi retaliated by uniting the right under the Forza Italia-led alliance, which prevented M5S from winning Sicily. "Berlusconi hasn't lost his political entrepreneurial flair," Mr. Galietti said. "He knows there is a premium to his name. He remains Italy's ultimate campaign weapon."

While Mr. Berlusconi may be an old man with heart problems and enduring legal difficulties, his effort to unite the right is, so far, paying off. He won't be prime minister again. But the Sicilian election outcome shows he will continue to be a political force.