Supporters of South African Deputy President and ANC Presidential candidate Cyril Ramaphosa sing and dance outside the NASREC Expo Centre in Johannesburg on Dec. 17, 2017, during the African National Congress's 54th National Conference.GULSHAN KHAN/The Globe and Mail
One of the most crucial decisions in South Africa's postapartheid history has narrowed down to a tense and unpredictable late-night vote by ruling-party delegates who had to choose between two veterans with very different ideologies.
At stake is the leadership of the African National Congress, the 105-year-old liberation movement that has ruled South Africa since the demise of apartheid in 1994.
The balloting by about 4,775 delegates, which finally began after midnight on Sunday night after a weekend of delays, will determine the country's direction for years to come. The voting results are expected to be announced on Monday morning.
The winner will replace President Jacob Zuma as leader of the ANC after years of corruption scandals that have badly damaged the party and sent it into opposition in some of the country's biggest cities.
The slight favourite, as of Sunday night, was Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, who has vowed to fight corruption and introduce pragmatic reforms to create jobs and restore growth in a stagnant economy. He has been backed by business and union leaders.
Mr. Ramaphosa, a former trade union leader who helped negotiate the end of apartheid in the early 1990s, was a comrade of liberation hero Nelson Mandela and was Mr. Mandela's personal choice as his successor until he was overruled by the ANC.
His sole remaining opponent is Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, a former cabinet minister and former head of the African Union commission who is strongly supported by Mr. Zuma, her ex-husband and father of her four children.
The party revealed on Sunday night that only Mr. Ramaphosa and Ms. Dlamini-Zuma had received enough support to be included in the leadership ballot.
If she wins the ANC vote, Ms. Dlamini-Zuma would become the ANC's first female leader, and probably South Africa's first female president in the 2019 election.
Her policies are unclear. She has followed Mr. Zuma's rhetoric about "radical economic transformation" to redistribute wealth to the country's poor majority, but has not explained how this would happen or why it never happened under Mr. Zuma. Her main backers are Mr. Zuma's political allies, and she has said little about his corruption scandals.
On Sunday evening, the ANC disclosed that Mr. Ramaphosa had been nominated by 1,469 of the party's branches, while Ms. Dlamini-Zuma was nominated by 1,094 branches. The winner will need votes from 2,389 delegates to gain a majority.
Mr. Ramaphosa's apparent lead, however, could be eroded by two other factors. Some larger branches with more delegates are believed to be supporting Ms. Dlamini-Zuma. And some of the ANC's national committees, which send several hundred delegates to the conference, are also thought to be favouring her.
Despite this, Mr. Ramaphosa's lead in the branch nominations could still be the deciding factor.
"It is tense and tough going, but at this stage I would say the chances are that he can maintain the lead," said Susan Booysen, a scholar and political analyst who has written books on the ANC.
"So far, so good for Cyril. But he can't take anything for granted because we don't know what happens in the voting booth."
She noted the persistent rumours of potential "brown envelope surprises" – covert bribes that could sway the delegates when they reach the voting booth.
Even if he wins, Mr. Ramaphosa could be saddled with a national executive in which Mr. Zuma's loyalists still hold heavy influence. At this point, for example, the leading candidate for deputy president is David Mabuza, premier of Mpumalanga province and a long-time Zuma supporter who has often faced corruption allegations.
A victory by Ms. Dlamini-Zuma could be worse for the ruling party's political future. The ANC has already seen its support fall to a postapartheid low of 54 per cent in municipal elections last year, and opinion polls suggest it could suffer a steeper decline in the 2019 national election with Ms. Dlamini-Zuma as its leader.
She is a poor campaigner and an uninspiring orator, tainted by her association with Mr. Zuma, and lacking any real popularity across the country. Polls suggest that she is supported by only about 16 per cent to 20 per cent of South Africans, while Mr. Ramaphosa is supported by more than 42 per cent.
On Saturday morning, as the ANC conference was about to begin, Mr. Zuma made a last-ditch bid to improve his legacy by announcing a scheme to provide free university education for low-income South Africans. Critics said the promise was meaningless because it contained no details on how it would be financed at a time of rising deficits and near-zero economic growth.
In his opening speech to the conference, Mr. Zuma lashed out angrily at a range of opponents. He criticized business groups, civil society, the media and the judiciary.
After a series of court judgments against him, including rulings that ordered prosecutors to pursue corruption charges against him, Mr. Zuma complained on Saturday that the rulings were "dangerous" and made it "difficult to govern."
Geoffrey York