Lampedusa
The boats began arriving on the tiny rock-strewn island a week ago, their decks packed with young Arab men, most of them in hooded sweatshirts. At first there were hundreds, then a thousand every day, with no end in sight.
The joy of the Tunisian revolution, in which crowds of peaceful protesters had driven dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to flee the country on Jan. 14, has produced what Italy's foreign minister Roberto Maroni, horrified by the human tide arriving on Italian soil, this weekend called a "biblical exodus."
This onslaught of humans has sent political waves across Europe and North Africa. It may represent the beginning of a new type of refugee politics, in which newly free countries are no longer able to imprison their populations, and wealthier countries struggle to decide between rejection and aid.
For the moment, Italy is overwhelmed. On Saturday alone, around 1,100 refugees arrived; another 16 ships came the next day. By Monday night, at least 6,000 had arrived in total - more than the entire population of the rocky, isolated island, which is 20 kilometres end to end. Lampedusa sits far from Italy in the southern Mediterranean, close to the beaches of Libya and Tunisia.
Lampedusa's refugee-reception centre quickly filled its 800 spaces, and for days the Tunisians were simply dumped in a fenced-in soccer field under the hot sun. On Monday, Italy re-opened a detention centre that can hold as many as 1,900 people, used during an earlier crisis of Libyan asylum seekers. Another 300 are being kept by parish volunteers.
"We have for the moment settled them," Lampedusa councillor Giovanni Sparma told Italian news. "There will be problems if more immigrants should arrive."
The journey is risky, and one Tunisian has already died, when a boat carrying 12 people sunk off the coast. Officials fear that more will die: Italy has witnessed hundreds of refugee deaths in the Mediterranean waters in recent years.
At least 10 boats are currently known to be plying the waters between north Africa and Lampedusa, and officials predict that the current 6,000 Tunisians will double in number - and 33 have already arrived in Sicily from Egypt, leaving open the possibility of greater numbers from Algeria, Syria and elsewhere.
Rome
The refugees have become a domestic crisis for Italy's right-wing government, which has enforced a tough anti-immigrant position. United Nations rules, the refugees are being shipped by boat and plane to the Italian mainland, where their identification papers and eligibility for refugee status will be checked.
On Tuesday the government said it would send 200 soldiers to Sicily to deal with the influx, and requested €100-million (about $130-million Canadian) in aid from the European Union to help cope with the "humanitarian emergency" on Lampedusa. Foreign minister Franco Frattini suggested that other EU countries ought to receive a share of the Tunisians: "The protection that the fleeing Tunisians are seeking cannot come from one country alone."
Italy's treatment of the Tunisians alarmed United Nations Secretary-General ban Ki-moon, who used a press conference in Lima on Tuesday to remind Italy of its refugee rights (the UN obligations were originally created in response to large numbers of European refugees, including Italians, in the years after the Second World War). "There may be some domestic difficulties, and challenges, I know that… But even under such circumstances, their basic human rights should be fully guaranteed and respected."
Over the weekend, Italy attempted to send hundreds of soldiers to Tunisia to enforce the beaches, provoking an angry diplomatic battle with its neighbour.
Tunis
Who are the young Tunisians risking their lives to reach an Italian outcrop, and why now?
Before, Tunisia's authoritarian regime had maintained a tight guard over its beaches, ensuring that foreign tourists were welcome but that Tunisians were physically unable to reach the shore and flee. According to Italians, the exodus began when the Tunisian government collapsed after the revolution, and many police and soldiers simply stopped arriving for work, fearing for the future.
Suddenly, according to the International Organization for Migration, there is a huge market for human smuggling on the Mediterranean shore, and Tunisians are paying typically $1,800 to make it across.
This represents years of savings for a poor Tunisian's family - but there are some suggestions that not all the émigrés are poor. Some are job-seekers, some are genuinely in danger of violence, and some are otherwise well-off people who are "close to the entourage" of Mr. Ben Ali and are seeking protection, according to Laura Boldrini, Italian spokeswoman for the United Nations High Commission for Refugees.
Ironically it is these well-off, regime connected men, rather than those fleeing poverty, who are most likely to be received as legitimate refugees and asylum claimants under UN rules.
In any case, the refugee crisis has had an equally dramatic effect on Tunisia's domestic politics. The suggestion by Mr. Maroni that Italy send troops to Tunisia was met with a furious response from Taieb Baccouche, the Tunisian government spokesman, who denounced the Italian Minister as a member of the "extreme, fascist, right wing."
"The Tunisian people reject the deployment of foreign soldiers on our territory," he said.
Mr. Baccouche claimed that beach security had been beefed up and that Tunisian officials have rounded up 1,500 people trying to use the country's cast to flee, and 200 preparing to leave the island of Dherba.
But it may be difficult to stop the flow. Under Mr. Ben Ali, attempting to flee to Europe was a serious crime punishable with imprisonment. The post-revolutionary government is unlikely to fill its prisons as aggressively - but the country continues to suffer a soaring unemployment rate and a collapsing economy, inspiring thousands to leave.
Tripoli
This has led to what Italian officials call "a Libyan solution." Two years ago, Italy dealt with a similar refugee influx from Italy by buying off the source country. Silvio Berlusconi's government paid dictator Moammar Gadhafi large sums of money to round up and take back anyone who tried to flee, and to aggressively police his country's beaches. It is the subject of angry complaints from the UN, who point out that it contravenes Italy's refugee obligations. But it has been popular domestically.
On Tuesday, Italy appeared poised to do something similar with Tunisia.
Mr. Frattini announced that he had reached an agreement that "respects Tunisia's sovereignty" by giving Tunisia €100-million in aid, a network of sophisticated radar installations and fast boats for the Tunisian military, and a deal that opens Tunisia to visa-free Italian tourism and allows larger numbers of Tunisians to immigrate legally to Italy.
Of course, another problem could arise if the Arab revolutions spread to Tripoli and unseat Mr. Gadhafi's family - in which case Italy may have to pay even more money, or begin processing large numbers of refugees.
Berlin
Italy's suggestion that other countries take a share of Tunisian refugees has infuriated European neighbours, especially Germany.
For one thing, German deputy interior minister Ole Schröder said in Berlin on Tuesday, Italy is being overly sensitive about he refugees: Germany takes in 48,000 asylum seekers every year, eight times the number who have reached Italy.
But the issue also raised the hackles of European leaders at a time when large scale immigration and asylum are unpopular at the ballot box - the leaders of Britain, France and Germany have all delivered speeches in recent months denouncing "multiculturalism."
Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, led calls for encouraging Tunisia to build a government capable of keeping people out. Europe, she said, should help "solve the problems in the home countries, to offer people there a perspective and a chance to live in their own country… not all people who do not want to be in Tunisia can now come to Europe."
Doug Saunders