An Egyptian army helicopter patrols above a protester waving Egypt's flags as crowds gather in Tahrir Square in Cairo, Feb. 1, 2011.Amr Nabil
The Egyptian military, which backs President Hosni Mubarak, will probably take on a pivotal role during the country's painful and violent transition. Whether that ends in a democratic, civilian rule or perpetual martial law, its influence will become all the more apparent as protesters continue to rail against Mr. Mubarak.
To all stakeholders - Egyptians, their Arab neighbours, Israel and the United States - the troops are a welcome symbol of stability, for now at least. This wealthy and secretive institution is arguably the most respected organization in the country. Within minutes of Mr. Mubarak's defiant speech Thursday night, opposition figure and Nobel laureate Mohamed ElBaradei tweeted a portentous signal: "Egypt will explode. Army must save the country now."
Editors note/update: Mr. Mubarak resigned on Friday February 11, 2011, click here to read more.
What's the military about?
Africa's biggest armed forces have 468,500 troops in the army, navy and air force and are run on an annual budget of about $3.3-billion (U.S.). It is a neutral, secular institution with strong ties to its American counterparts, has upheld the peace treaty signed with Israel in 1979 and ranks 10th in the world in size. Conscripts must serve up to three years and are paid a pittance.
The Defence Minister, Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi, has been in the job since 1991 and is likely to play a big role in the planned transition. But under his tenure the army has decayed, a diplomatic cable in February, 2009, and unveiled by Wikileaks noted, adding that he was the "sole decision maker" in the ministry. "But he retains President Mubarak's support, and so he and the top brass will most likely stay in position until Mubarak leaves the scene."
Most of the equipment in the military's arsenal is American made and Washington sends $1.3-billion in aid every year - a reward for its peace deal with Israel. The hardware includes battle tanks, including the Abrams, which have been rolled across the streets of Cairo during the uprising, as well as F-16 fighter jets, Black Hawks and missiles, according to The Military Balance, a publication by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
Further underlining the cozy relationship between Washington and Cairo, Egypt's elite corps of officers study in American universities and the militaries train together in the Bright Star exercises which take place in Egypt every two years. In return, the U.S. is guaranteed airspace for its military operations, access to the Suez Canal, which is a critical waterway for oil tankers, and co-operation on the fight against jihadists.
How deep is the relationship between the government and the military?
In recent history, extremely. When the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces read out its communiqué on television Thursday, promising to "safeguard the homeland" and aspirations of the "great Egyptian people," it was the latest in a long tradition of the military taking a definitive role in the state's affairs. All four Egyptian presidents since the fifties have come from the military.
Its prestige dates back half a century when a group of talented military men, the Free Officers, overthrew King Farouk in 1952 after Egypt's humiliating defeat in the Arab-Israeli war of 1948. The king was seen as a British colonial puppet. Gamal Abdul Nasser, a Free Officer, seized power and restored Egyptian national pride by leading the army to capture the strategic Suez Canal from British control and nationalizing it.
Nasser's successor and fellow revolutionary, Anwar Sadat, eventually signed the peace treaty with Israel in 1979 which made him popular in Washington but not his own people. In 1981, he was assassinated by a religious fanatic, but swiftly succeeded by another man in uniform. Mr. Mubarak, a stalwart of the air force, took over and put in place emergency laws which still govern the country.
Why is the army so trusted?
Civil society groups and the political opposition, whether Islamist or secular, have been severely weakened by 30 years of repression, and there are few other places for Egyptians to put their faith.
Police powers to arrest and detain citizens have expanded under the emergency laws with little oversight. As a result, the police and the General Intelligence Directorate (GID) are despised because they have contact with civilians on a daily basis, contact during which they harass, torture and beat. The military, by contrast, is relatively distant from the Egyptian public.
The army can do a lot of good in the short term as political groups decide on the future of the country, said George Ishak, a prominent activist and member of the National Association for Change founded by Mr. ElBaradei.
"The army is the army of the people, not the regime, they speak differently," he said in an interview from Cairo. "We trust in them because they protect us."
Is that trust deserved?
The trust may not be entirely deserved. The armed forces have benefited from Mr. Mubarak's reign and are part of the business, political and security elite. Mr. Mubarak, who served as a pilot in the Egyptian Air Force, has looked after his own. It has a huge range of lucrative business interests, such as factories and farms. Officers often serve as mayors or provincial governors, further expanding their reach in civilian life.
"As a consequence, the security apparatus still enjoys substantial political clout without formally holding the reins of power," wrote Bruce Rutherford, author of Egypt after Mubarak.
At the same time, the military's vaunted status is also disputable. It lost three wars with Israel, in 1948, 1956 and 1967, during which time its capabilities to fight were badly damaged.
It has also mostly been untested in recent decades, although President Mubarak answered U.S. president George H.W. Bush's call for an Arab army with 35,000 troops to help drive Saddam Hussein's invaders from Kuwait in 1991. Two Egyptian divisions were part of the 100-hour ground war. Not since 1977, when Egyptian warplanes and tanks laid waste to several Libyan border towns during a brief war between the two Arab neighbours, has Cairo's military won anything on its own.
Its record against its own civilians this week has become a matter of controversy. According to a report published by Human Rights Watch, it has also been involved in the torture of civilians.
In the coming days, the military will be put in a tricky position because, on one hand, it keeps Mr. Mubarak in power, and yet the pro-democracy movement has come to expect it is on their side because of the televised statement.
Emile Hokayem, a senior fellow for regional security at the IISS think tank in Bahrain, said the situation was confusing: Are they protecting President Mubarak or the civilians? "I assume Mubarak and (Vice-President Omar) Suleiman have linked their futures and that the army has been briefed and is on board," he said in an interview. "The army and the Republican Guard are probably gearing up to contain mass protests, but they must know that the crowd will be angrier than ever, feeling betrayed by the army."
Is this tumult unusual for a country in this region?
In recent weeks, Western commentators and politicians have voiced concern that Egypt, with no real history of democracy, will slide into anarchy or fanatical Islamists will take control.
But the army, taking on the role of either neutral referee or guardian of stability, is well established in the Arab and Muslim context.
In Lebanon, racked by confessional politics, the army prevented the country from disintegrating into another civil war in 2008, when the Shiite movement Hezbollah seized control of most of Beirut. The army prevented further chaos by refusing to take sides even as bullets and missiles were flying from all sides.
Turkey's generals consider themselves guardians of the secular republic and have overthrown three elected governments since 1960. This experience of a slightly Islamist, elected government with a secular army keeping watch in the wings may be a more realistic model for Egypt in the medium term.
With a file from Paul Koring
Special to The Globe and Mail