In South Africa, Zuma’s ‘radical’ rhetoric means more of the same

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When a president begins his second term by promising "radical" economic change, and when the president is backed by a 62-per-cent election majority, it sounds like a serious blow to the status quo. But in South Africa, things are never quite that simple.

Jacob Zuma was inaugurated for his second term as South Africa's President this weekend, and on Sunday night he unveiled his new cabinet. In his speeches this weekend, he repeated his election pledge to launch a "radical phase of socioeconomic transformation."

But there was a slight problem: nobody really knows what this radical phase will mean, and whether it's a bold new plan or just a rhetorical flourish.

The bloated new 35-member cabinet, the obvious product of political horse-trading and minor tinkering, suggests that Mr. Zuma is more interested in self-preservation than anything else.

The rest of the world, including the foreign investors who see South Africa as a treasury of mineral wealth and a potential gateway to the booming African continent, will be confused by the mixed signals and political uncertainty. Yet that's always been the preferred style of the African National Congress, the former liberation movement that has ruled South Africa since democracy arrived in 1994.

The ANC, with its links to unions and communists, has always talked of transformation and revolution. In reality, it has been unwilling to challenge the basic structure of South Africa's economy, and its interventions have been primarily an excuse to enrich its cronies in the business sector. Nor has it tackled the chronic labor unrest and electricity shortages that have badly damaged its mining and manufacturing sectors.

When he talks of "radical" change, Mr. Zuma is trying to placate the millions of South Africans who are fed up with persistently high unemployment, slow economic growth, widespread poverty and rising inequality. He knows that the country is unhappy. This month's election showed that the opposition parties are growing, and the ANC nearly lost its majority in the economic heartland, Gauteng province (where Johannesburg and Pretoria are located).

The biggest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, with 22 per cent of the vote, is pushing the ANC from the liberal right. But the ANC is more worried about a new left-wing party, the Economic Freedom Fighters, which gained 6 per cent of the vote in its first crack at electoral politics this month.

The EFF, led by former ANC firebrand Julius Malema, is likely to be joined soon by another left-wing party emerging from the union movement. Together they demand radical reforms such as the nationalization of mining companies, the confiscation of farmland, income redistribution and greater power for workers. At a time of growing street protests in impoverished townships, this is the threat that worries Mr. Zuma and leads him to his radical rhetoric.

Yet if Mr. Zuma was truly planning any radical changes, you might expect to see it in his new cabinet. And when he finally unveiled it to the impatient media on Sunday night, after long delays, there was little sign of radicalism.

The first signal of the prevailing status quo was the continuing bloat in the size of the Zuma cabinet. Instead of a lean, focused team, the new 35-member cabinet was bigger than those of previous presidents, who were usually satisfied with a 28-member cabinet.

The cabinet was accompanied by a separate list of 36 deputy ministers in the national executive, who are politicians rather than bureaucrats. This list was equally inflated as Mr. Zuma added second deputies to some ministries. The number of ministers and deputies was inflated in the backroom wheeling and dealing because Mr. Zuma needed to balance the political needs of his supporters to maintain his own power.

The membership of the new cabinet did not suggest any radical challenge to the status quo. Fourteen of his incumbents were simply reappointed to the same portfolios – including key ministers such as health, education, defence and foreign affairs.

The appointment of the new finance minister, Nhlanhla Nene, was not exactly a gesture of radicalism – he was the long-serving deputy of the previous finance minister. South Africa's stock-market analysts immediately welcomed the appointment, describing Mr. Nene as a reassuring presence and a signal that Mr. Zuma's pledge of "radical" transformation would not threaten their interests.

New ministers were appointed to the cabinet, but most were longstanding Zuma loyalists. Only a handful of new ministries were created – including a ministry of small business, not exactly a threat to the status quo. There was also a new Communications Ministry, responsible for "information dissemination and publicity," that has been immediately dubbed the "Ministry of Propaganda."

Perhaps the most disturbing signal of business as usual was Mr. Zuma's decision to give prominent jobs to two politicians who had been implicated in corruption scandals. One was the former police commissioner, Bheki Cele, who was sacked in 2012 when an inquiry found him "unfit for office." The inquiry found that Mr. Cele had pushed for a lucrative property lease to be given to a well-connected business tycoon, despite irregularities in the process. Yet he remains a powerful political figure in Mr. Zuma's home province, KwaZulu-Natal, and he was rewarded on Sunday by being appointed as the deputy minister of agriculture, forestry and fisheries – despite the corruption scandal that led to his earlier sacking.

The other controversial politician to get a promotion was Tina Joemat-Pettersson, the former agriculture and fisheries minister, who was plagued by scandals. A recent inquiry into her handling of state tenders found that she was guilty of "reckless dealing with state money and services, resulting in fruitless and wasteful expenditure, loss of confidence in the fisheries industry in South Africa, alleged decimation of fisheries resources in South Africa and delayed quota allocations due to lack of appropriate research."

Despite this scathing report, she was rewarded on Sunday with a promotion to a more powerful job as the minister of energy. There could be no stronger signal that Mr. Zuma is likely to preserve the essential elements of the status quo.