Al Jazeera journalist Mohamed Fahmy raises an Egyptian national flag while talking to the judge during his retrial at a court in Cairo.Asmaa Waguih/Reuters
Mohamed Fahmy's trials and tribulations are far from over, despite the fact that an Egyptian court on Thursday ordered him released on bail.
His new trial, to commence on Feb. 23, was ordered by an Egyptian appeals court when it overturned Mr. Fahmy's earlier conviction and lengthy sentence. It is not at all certain, however, that the Canadian journalist for Al Jazeera English – a former dual citizen who recently renounced his Egyptian citizenship – will simply be acquitted this time.
It seems clear that the Fahmy family, his lawyers, his employer and the Canadian government were putting too much stock in the hope that Mr. Fahmy would be released under a presidential decree that allowed for Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi to deport a foreigner accused of certain crimes. That was the vehicle by which Mr. Fahmy's colleague, Australian journalist Peter Greste who was convicted on the same charges, was able to leave Egypt.
But when it came down to it, Mr. Fahmy had two strikes against him. One was his dual citizenship. His renunciation of his Egyptian citizenship would not have impressed proud Egyptian officials. To them, Mr. Fahmy will always be Egyptian and this effort to take advantage of a loophole for foreigners would not have endeared the man to them.
The second was a failure of diplomacy. The presidential decree, issued in November, included an important clause that said a foreigner can be deported provided that the accused serve his sentence or face a similar trial in his home country.
When Canada's then-foreign minister John Baird, on a mission to Egypt in January, acknowledged publicly that Mr. Fahmy would not be tried or imprisoned in Canada for anything he had done in Egypt, it became impossible for President el-Sissi to credibly deport the man.
The charges against Mr. Fahmy are serious in Egypt's eyes: deliberately reporting false information and aiding a terrorist organization (the Muslim Brotherhood, which was outlawed by an interim government appointed by Egypt's military, led by then-Field Marshal el-Sissi). Hundreds of other people, mostly Egyptians, have been convicted on related offences and will spend years in prison.
For President el-Sissi simply to bow to outside pressure and release an accused such as Mr. Fahmy, would have jeopardized the President's credibility in the eyes of Egypt's judiciary and police, two government bodies that are essential to Mr. el-Sissi's hopes of restoring and maintaining law and order in his police state.
Indeed, the more visible the pressure brought to bear on the Egyptian leader in Mr. Fahmy's case, the more he drew back from any idea of an early release for the journalist.
The latest instance was when Amal Clooney, one of Mr. Fahmy's lawyers, last week requested a face-to-face meeting with the Egyptian President in Cairo.
As it happened, Mr. el-Sissi was preoccupied with more important matters. On Sunday, he was speaking by phone to the royal leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – his most important financial backers, and rulers who also despise the Muslim Brotherhood and Al Jazeera. On Monday and Tuesday, he was hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin, an increasingly strong ally, who also is not viewed positively by Al Jazeera.
But even if Mr. el-Sissi's calendar had not been full, it is difficult to imagine him publicly meeting with and then bowing to the demands of Ms. Clooney for the release of her client, no matter how great is her star power.
What Egyptian officials did do was quickly move up Mr. Fahmy's new trial to Thursday, when he was granted bail.
As a "foreigner" Mr. Fahmy now faces three possible outcomes.
He could be acquitted; he could be convicted and deported to Canada; or he could be convicted and forced to remain in Egypt for the duration of his sentence.
No one should be surprised if he draws the short, last straw.
In that event, his best hope is that the sentence will not be much longer than the time he already has served in Egyptian jails. In this way, Egyptians would save face and Mr. Fahmy would be home sooner than most who languish in Egyptian prisons.
Of course as a convicted foreigner, Mr. Fahmy's entry into Egypt at any time in the future will almost certainly be denied.