Among the good news Prime Minister Stephen Harper has received recently is a CROP survey, done for La Presse, that found Quebeckers - who used to prefer minority governments - have changed their minds. Now, 68 per cent want a majority government - a desire shared across Canada.
This is a positive sign for the Conservatives, since "majority government" equals "Conservative government." All the polls show that it is the Conservatives, not the Liberals, who are poised to form the next government. So it appears at long last the fear of Mr. Harper's "hidden agenda" has finally subsided - even in Quebec.
Quebeckers' about-face can be explained, perhaps, by their increasing weariness over the petty quarrels and partisanship that have marked parliamentary life for the past five years. It might not be a coincidence that the same feeling is reflected provincially, where the Charest Liberals, who were given a majority in last year's election, enjoy an unusually high level of popularity.
Or there might be another reason: The Conservatives have started to regain a bit of strength in Quebec.
Two weeks ago, this change was registered in the CROP poll that surveyed 1,000 Quebeckers. The Conservatives, at 21 per cent, were still five points behind the Liberals at 26 per cent - but they had gained eight percentage points since last June, whereas over the same period the Liberals had lost nine points. Also, Michael Ignatieff was still seen by 28 per cent as the "best prime minister," although this was a sharp decrease from April when he was the choice of 45 per cent of those polled. As for Mr. Harper, his image has improved: He was the choice of 23 per cent for best prime minister, a jump of nine points since last June. Overall, satisfaction with the government rose to 40 per cent, its best score in 12 months.
A more recent Ekos poll done for the CBC - with a sample of 3,300 Canadians, including 794 Quebeckers - was published last Friday, and it confirms the shift in Quebec, where the Conservatives and the Liberals are now neck and neck at 22.2 per cent and 21 per cent respectively. But when the two federal parties are tied in Quebec what it really means is that the Conservatives are ahead since they are stronger in francophone areas outside Montreal and the Liberals "lose" a great number of votes in the partly anglophone ridings on the Island of Montreal.
While the Quebec Liberals were busy tearing themselves apart in the wake of MP Denis Coderre's denunciation of Mr. Ignatieff's "Toronto entourage," the Harper government was quietly improving its standing in Quebec.
For the by-election in the riding of Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, the Conservative candidate is Bernard Généreux, the young, dynamic and popular mayor of La Pocatière - the best kind of candidate a party can find nowadays, in an era when high-profile people don't want to enter politics. The riding will probably go once again to the Bloc Québécois, albeit, maybe, by a smaller margin.
In Montreal, the government has mandated Cameron Charlebois, a respected expert on urban development, to oversee the much-needed renovation of a quasi-abandoned sector of Montreal's old harbour - a federal responsibility. (I, for one, hope the operation will be as successful as the restoration of Granville Island, one of Vancouver's treasures.)
Mr. Ignatieff, meanwhile, faces an uphill battle in Quebec to win back the federalist vote. Fortunately for him, the NDP gave him a respite by supporting the government. If the federal election is held next spring, the Liberals will have almost six months to regain their strength. Six months is a very long time in politics.
Lysiane Gagnon