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opinion

Is the Liberal brand back in fashion? It seems so, if one considers last week's Léger Marketing poll that confirms the rebirth of the Liberal Party throughout the country and that shows the Quebec Liberals, under new leader Philippe Couillard, slightly ahead of the Parti Québécois government.

On the national level, the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau is credited with 37-per-cent support, leaving the Conservatives seven points behind and the NDP 17 behind. Although the regional samples are too small to be accurate, there's a trend at work: In Ontario, the Atlantic provinces and Quebec, the "Justin" Liberals are the favourite party, and even in the West (where, predictably, the Conservatives lead by a large margin), the Liberals are a strong second, way ahead of the NDP.

This momentum is undoubtedly due to the federal Liberal leadership campaign and its star candidate – who combines good looks, a great family name and relatively sound policies – but also to the recent initiatives of NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair, who managed to anger both the West and Ontario by his two unrequited campaigns against the Clarity Act on Quebec sovereignty and the Keystone XL pipeline project.

The first initiative angered everyone outside Quebec and didn't win the NDP one new vote in Quebec, since Quebeckers are fed up with the unity file and don't want to hear a word about a third referendum. And the NDP will pay a great deal for their leader's snide campaign in the United States to undermine an oil pipeline project that's vital for the West (and for Canada as well). The irony is that Mr. Mulcair favours a west-east pipeline that would bring oil sands bitumen (as well as jobs) to Eastern Canada.

This latest episode, coming a few months after Mr. Mulcair qualified the development of the West's energetic resources as a "Dutch disease" that penalizes Ontario's manufacturing sector (never mind that the West now subsidizes Ontario's economy with equalization transfer payments), might cost the New Democrats their second place on the political scene.

But much can happen before the next federal election, including the downfall of the Liberals' golden boy. Until now, especially since the beginning of the leadership campaign, Mr. Trudeau has been closely managed by his entourage, a group of seasoned professionals who know how to run a campaign, craft a platform and avoid political pitfalls. Mr. Trudeau will be judged for who he really is after he's elected leader, once he's out of the bubble. Then he'll have to react spontaneously to unpredictable events, inside and outside Parliament, and deal with the harsh attacks of Stephen Harper and Mr. Mulcair, both of whom are more experienced and aggressive than the starry-eyed former teacher.

As for Mr. Couillard, the new Quebec Liberal leader, it's much too soon to predict his future performance. For the first time in almost two years, the Liberals are now ahead of the PQ by more than the margin of error – although by only four points. The Liberals are far from a victory, since they lag behind the Péquistes by 12 points in the francophone electorate that's key to most ridings in the province.

Mr. Couillard must attract a large portion of the francophones if he wants to topple the PQ government. This he will do not by outdoing the PQ on nationalist and identity issues but by coming out as a serious and trustworthy leader, especially on the economic front.

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