The debate on the economy hosted by The Globe and Mail was only the second leaders' debate held west of Toronto, and the first one ever in Calgary. But Calgary was not just the backdrop.
For example, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau went out of his way on Thursday evening to woo Calgarians. He mentioned flood-plain mitigation and infrastructure spending for Deerfoot Trail (which included a shout-out to Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi). He also went after Conservative Leader Stephen Harper – whose riding is in Calgary – for not standing up for his hometown, especially when it came to building oil pipelines.
Meanwhile, Mr. Harper used Alberta Premier Rachel Notley as a proxy for federal NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair, criticizing her tax increases as causing job losses in the province.
The focus on Alberta in an election is new. For successive federal campaigns, Calgary, and even to a lesser extent Edmonton, was often "fly-over country." The Liberals and NDP conceded much of Alberta to the Conservatives, and the Conservatives took the support of Albertans for granted. But now, the three major party leaders are spending time in the province. This goes well beyond just showing up in time for Thursday's debate. For example, Mr. Trudeau was in Calgary on the second day of the campaign and both Mr. Harper and Mr. Mulcair had previously held rallies in Edmonton.
But the big events were during debate week. Both Mr. Harper and Mr. Mulcair held rallies attracting more than a thousand supporters in Calgary. Mr. Mulcair even went to Lethbridge, where the NDP believes that it could win a seat, becoming the first national leader to ever campaign in that city. Mr. Trudeau did a smaller event in Calgary on Wednesday morning, then had a photo-op coup by paddling a canoe down the Bow River in predebate preparation on Thursday morning.
The reason for all the attention on Alberta – at least in comparative terms – is that there are several ridings that are now in play in this election. According to EKOS, the Conservatives have a huge lead in opinion polls in Alberta. The Tories lead with 58 per cent versus the NDP (19 per cent) and Liberals (18 per cent). But these are provincewide polls and do not reflect the tight races that are happening in Edmonton and Calgary (and even Lethbridge).
In the 2011 election, the Conservatives took 27 out of 28 seats. Provincial voters will send 34 MPs to Ottawa on Oct. 19. Eric Grenier's threehundredeight.com breaks down these individual ridings with a methodology that combines aggregate polling numbers with historical patterns. The result is that he predicts, with more than 75-per-cent accuracy, that the Conservatives will win 27 of the 34 seats and the NDP will win two. The vast majority of these predicted Conservative seats are at the 99-per-cent prediction level.
It's in the remaining five seats where the real competition exists. Mr. Grenier believes that Calgary-Centre, Calgary-Confederation and Calgary-Skyview are all toss-ups between the Conservatives and the Liberals. Meanwhile, Lethbridge is a toss-up between the Conservatives and the NDP. Finally, Edmonton-Centre is more of a classic three-way battle, with the Liberals holding a nine-point lead over both the Conservatives and Liberals.
Political-science research in Canada suggests that most people vote based on party preference and national leader. But these five tight Alberta races are being driven by a combination of local candidates and demographic profile, and the national campaign matters less than it does in the rest of the province.
The Liberals and NDP have recruited star candidates and are facing off against weaker Conservative candidates. Compare that with the fact that Mr. Harper and cabinet ministers Jason Kenney and Michelle Rempel are not going to break a sweat in their respective ridings.
Demographically, these five ridings include the campus and surrounding area of universities, downtown cores and, in one case, heavily multicultural neighbourhoods. Traditionally, these are the types of ridings that support progressive candidates.
Meanwhile, the rural parts of Alberta and the suburbs of Calgary and Edmonton will all easily go Conservative.