A woman wears a mask and face shield at West Vancouver's Ambleside Beach. Rising COVID-19 case counts, coupled with inflation and worldwide fears about the war in Ukraine, have taken a measurable toll on Canadians' mood.Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press
Nik Nanos is the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington and the official pollster for The Globe and Mail and CTV News.
The pandemic, the rising cost of living and the war in Ukraine together point to the new reality: a corrosive environment that frays nerves and heightens worry.
The usual default for most Canadians is to focus further on our governments and how they might negatively affect our day-to-day lives. If one were to summarize 35 years of collective polling wisdom, it’s that voters simply want elected officials to “not mess things up.” Citizens are pragmatic. They want to mind their own business, work hard and plan for the future.
Uncertainty is unwelcome. Right now, this uncertainty is being caused by factors mostly outside the control of elected officials. The pandemic has been a torturous experience for people. They have been isolated, locked up and cut off from family and friends. It has threatened mental and physical health. The polling trend line of concern about the pandemic has crested and fallen several times.
If the past four weeks were about providing a glimmer of hope to Canadians, as provincial governments relaxed mask and physical distancing requirements, we now have to worry about rising case counts once again. As if that weren’t enough, Canadians are also grappling with the rising cost of living and higher interest rates – putting their financial well-being at risk.
What best describes your situation as far as the rising cost of living goes?
I've had to cancel a
major purchase because
of increasing prices
8%
It's become difficult to
afford basic necessities
21
20
Both of the above
Inflation hasn't been
a major problem
48
Unsure
5
What best describes your situation as far as the rising cost of living goes?
I've had to cancel a major
purchase because of
increasing prices
8%
It's become difficult to
afford basic necessities
21
20
Both of the above
Inflation hasn't been
a major problem
48
Unsure
5
What best describes your situation as far as the rising cost of living goes?
I've had to cancel a major purchase
because of increasing prices
8%
It's become difficult to
afford basic necessities
21
20
Both of the above
Inflation hasn't been
a major problem
48
Unsure
5
According to a recent survey for Bloomberg News by Nanos, about one-half of Canadians say they have had to cancel a major purchase (8 per cent), can’t afford to pay for basic necessities (21 per cent) or have dealt with both (20 per cent).
The kicker is that if you happen to be under 35 years of age, you are much more likely to feel the inflation squeeze. If you are retired and on a fixed income, you are much less likely to report a negative impact of inflation.
The pandemic and the rising cost of living have turned traditional sentiment, driven by demographics, on its head. In the past, younger Canadians were more likely to be optimistic about the future. Fast forward to today and they are more likely to be facing mental-health problems and uncertainty about paying bills. People are five times more likely to believe that the next generation will have a lower rather than a higher standard of living. Only 12 per cent believe the next generation will have the same standard of living – the lowest score on record in 10 years of tracking.
Percentage who think the next generation of Canadians will have a lower standard of living than today, by survey date
63
59
59
52
45%
Feb.,
2021
May
Aug.
Nov.
Feb.,
2022
Percentage who think the next generation of Canadians will have a lower standard of living than today, by survey date
63
59
59
52
45%
Feb.,
2021
May
Aug.
Nov.
Feb.,
2022
Percentage who think the next generation of Canadians will have a lower standard of living than today, by survey date
63
59
59
52
45%
Feb.,
2021
May
Aug.
Nov.
Feb.,
2022
The war in Ukraine, and the global unpredictability it has created, is the third uncertainty. For those old enough to remember the Cold War, this is reminiscent of a bygone era where the nuclear threat of mutually assured destruction was part of the backdrop of everyday life. Now, not only is there economic and health uncertainty at home, there is also uncertainty abroad as both national security pacts and trade agreements fall under the stress of a hot war in Central Europe.
Canadians are both spectators and participants. Spectators in the sense that the conflict is far away. Participants in the sense that Canada has more than 1.3 million citizens of Ukrainian descent – the third-largest group of Ukrainians outside Ukraine and Russia.
WHERE CANADIANS STAND ON
OFFICIAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE
Support
Somewhat support
Unsure
Somewhat oppose
Oppose
Increasing sanctions against Russia
63%
20
2
5
10
Using tax dollars to airlift Ukrainian refugees to Canada
58%
27
2
5
8
Establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine
22%
25
8
15
30
Going to war with Russia over Ukraine
21%
26
8
13
32
Going to war with Russia if it invades yet another country
41%
25
7
11
16
WHERE CANADIANS STAND ON
OFFICIAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE
Support
Somewhat support
Unsure
Somewhat oppose
Oppose
Increasing sanctions against Russia
63%
20
2
5
10
Using tax dollars to airlift Ukrainian refugees to Canada
58%
27
2
5
8
Establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine
22%
25
8
15
30
Going to war with Russia over Ukraine
21%
26
8
13
32
Going to war with Russia if it invades yet another country
41%
25
7
11
16
WHERE CANADIANS STAND ON OFFICIAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE
Support
Somewhat support
Unsure
Somewhat oppose
Oppose
Increasing sanctions against Russia
63%
20
2
5
10
Using tax dollars to airlift Ukrainian refugees to Canada
58%
27
2
5
8
Establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine
22%
25
8
15
30
Going to war with Russia over Ukraine
21%
26
8
13
32
Going to war with Russia if it invades yet another country
41%
25
7
11
16
Research on the war suggests there is a generosity of spirit among Canadians: A significant proportion of people (85 per cent) are ready to welcome 70,000 or more refugees fleeing the Russian invasion. Likewise, more than eight out of 10 Canadians support (58 per cent) or somewhat support (27 per cent) bearing the costs to airlift Ukrainians to safety and slap further economic sanctions on Russia.
However, when asked about providing direct military support as part of a NATO fighting force, there is less consensus. Canadians are almost evenly split when it comes to sending troops to Ukraine, with about just as many favouring escalation (21 per cent support and another 26 per cent somewhat support the idea) as opposing it (32 per cent oppose and another 13 per cent somewhat oppose).
However, if Russia were to expand the war, the appetite for military action from Canada increases notably. Two out of three Canadians (41 per cent support and another 25 per cent somewhat support) back going to war with Russia as part of a NATO force if Russia were to invade yet another country.
The key takeaway is that Canadians very much support humanitarian action and strong economic sanctions but are divided on the prospect of Canadian troops facing the Russians except in the case of an escalation of the war outside Ukraine.
Our world today is one where uncertainty is piled on top of uncertainty. Having spent the past two years dealing with the pandemic, Canadians are now having to deal with new stresses – financial and foreign.
Since early 2020, Canadians have grappled with the roller coaster of the pandemic only to emerge in a world where the cost of living is rising and the global order may be fundamentally reshaped. We may very well be in a world where the only certainty is uncertainty.
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