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Former U.S. secretary of state Henry Kissinger took on the Blob last week.

On the eve of his 99th birthday, Mr. Kissinger suggested Ukraine should cede part of its territory to Russia to bring an end to a war whose consequences are growing more dire by the day. In doing so, the ex-Cold War U.S. diplomat undermined the narrative that the Washington foreign-policy establishment – otherwise known as the Blob – has vehiculated.

Mr. Kissinger also echoed the concerns of many European politicians, who are worried about the prospects of a prolonged war for their own countries’ economies and internal politics, and about the danger of seeking to punish Russia and President Vladimir Putin. They also fear that war-induced food shortages across the developing world will destabilize already wobbly governments in Africa and Asia, and unleash a tidal wave of migrants to Europe.

“Negotiations need to begin in the next two months before [the war] creates upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome,” Mr. Kissinger said in a virtual appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “Pursuing the war beyond that point would not be about the freedom of Ukraine, but a new war against Russia itself.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reacted angrily to Mr. Kissinger’s intervention, likening it to attempts by European leaders to appease Hitler before the outbreak of the Second World War. “It seems that Mr. Kissinger’s calendar is not 2022, but 1938,” he said.

His Davos appearance showed that Mr. Kissinger, who once maintained close contact with Mr. Putin, has remained true to his realpolitik instincts. He is of the view that the longer-term costs of efforts to weaken or isolate Russia and its President cannot be discounted by the West. The result would be to create chronic instability in Europe and to push Russia into China’s arms.

That view, while unpopular in Washington, is widespread in Western Europe, where the leaders of Germany, France and Italy have been far more conciliatory toward Mr. Putin. In a May 6 speech, for instance, French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the West should “never give in to the temptation of humiliation or the spirit of revenge” in dealing with Russia.

Much of the Blob sees the war in Ukraine as a defining struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. The democratic West cannot afford to “lose” the fight for a free Ukraine without surrendering its moral authority. To cede Ukrainian territory would be to reward Mr. Putin for the destruction he has wrought and lives he has destroyed. That view is shared in Poland and the Baltic countries, which fear they could be next on Mr. Putin’s hit list.

“I hear there are attempts to allow Putin to somehow save face in the international arena,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said last week. “But how can you save something that has been utterly disfigured?”

Where does U.S. President Joe Biden stand on all this? Because, while it will be up to Mr. Zelensky to decide whether to make concessions to Mr. Putin, Ukraine’s ability to fend off Russian attacks depends entirely on U.S. willingness to provide the military and financial support to do so. Washington has committed a whopping US$54-billion in aid to Ukraine since the war began on Feb. 24, including a US$40-billion package approved last month by the U.S. Congress. But a prolonged war would require even more U.S. aid and weapons.

On Wednesday, Mr. Biden agreed to send advanced rocket systems to Ukraine, on the condition that the long-range weapons not be used to attack targets within Russian territory. In an op-ed in The New York Times, the U.S. President said he is committed to arming Ukraine “so it can fight on the battlefield and be in the strongest possible position at the bargaining table.”

In contrast to comments he made in March, when he said Mr. Putin “cannot remain in power,” Mr. Biden insisted he is not seeking regime change in Russia. “As much as I disagree with Mr. Putin, and find his actions an outrage, the United States will not try to bring about his ouster in Moscow,” Mr. Biden wrote. “We do not want to prolong the war just to inflict pain on Russia.”

Those words contradict what Mr. Biden’s Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said in April, when he remarked that the United States “wants to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things it has done in invading Ukraine.”

But April was a long time ago.

“I will not pressure the Ukrainian government – in private or in public – to make any territorial concessions,” Mr. Biden wrote in his op-ed.

One gets a sense, however, that he might not mind it so much if it did.

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