Impossible, you may say. Beyond comprehension that a president who shatters ethical, political and constitutional norms, who is beset by scandals, resignations, illicit affairs, lies and chaos is not collapsing in popularity.
Far from it, Donald Trump has been on the rise of late. In a clutch of polls heading into this week, he was averaging a 41-per-cent approval rating, which is his best showing in a long time.
In the important generic ballot polls pitting party against party, his Republicans have made significant gains on the Democrats, signifying that Mr. Trump may be able to hold both the House of Representatives and the Senate in this year's midterm elections.
Republicans are sticking with their leader through thick and thin. Mr. Trump's big tax cut helps the greedy more than the needy. It's a buckrakers' delight. But it's starting to sell. He also got a big boost from the patriotic blare of his State of the Union address. Riveting were moments when he called upon those making special contributions to U.S. society take a bow. Wisely, he didn't include Russians.
A steep fall could still happen. Mr. Trump has just gone through, even by his standards, a dreadful week or two. There was the Florida school gun massacre, not a highlight reel for his gun-loving party; the indictment of Russians for interference in the 2016 election; revelations by two women in respect to alleged long-running affairs with Mr. Trump; the drop in the stock market.
A Gallup poll to start this week put Mr. Trump back down at 37 per cent. That's still not much of a drop. He has a floor in the mid-to-high thirties he never falls below. When you consider George W. Bush's approval rating was often down in the 20s, when you consider Ontario premier Kathleen Wynne is at about 20, when you consider Mr. Trump is viewed by so many as the most unfit man to ever occupy the Oval Office, it's a wonder he isn't blowing away all record lows.
If you're looking for reasons how he defies gravity, analysts offer many:
1. Party polarization and affiliation is so strong in the United States it has become tribal. No matter who leads the Republican Party, its members will support him.
2. The economy is performing well under Mr. Trump. Jobs are in supply.
3. His immigration stand has broad appeal. Many view him as the saviour of white America. The population is 72 per cent white.
4. The more Trump supporters are told how dumb they are, the more they dig in. They wanted someone to smash the norms, someone who speaks their language. He meets the standard.
5. Elites have lost control of the American narrative. The relatively centrist consensus they built has been shredded. The internet and social media have dispersed power platforms to the margins, the populists, the less educated.
6. The Democrats lack an appealing agenda. They are seen as a postwhite, left-leaning party whose support lies largely along the seaboards: coastal progressives out of touch with heartland America.
7. Mr. Trump has a powerful propaganda machine – ratings-wonder Fox News – working around the clock for him. It sells his sophistry.
8. Legions of evangelicals continue to support Mr. Trump, despite the moral bankruptcy he habitually exhibits.
9. This President may be unfit for political office, but the anti-politician climate is so strong in the United States that being unfit means you're fit.
10. Mr. Trump is the king of the counterattack. He has a mammoth Twitter audience to which his vitriol pours on a daily basis to demean opponents. If repeated enough, cheap shots work.
All said, stark realities still confront this President. A 41-per-cent approval rating is a low number. Other presidents have gone into midterm elections with a much higher standing and been clobbered. The midterms are often are a protest vote.
The Mueller inquiry's indictment of the Russians did not tag anyone on the Trump team. But Mr. Mueller is just getting going. His finding has awoken many Americans to a threat they weren't convinced was out there.
What could tip the scales, what could finally send the so-called great patriot Mr. Trump crashing through that floor of his, is if his own players are found to have been party to the threat.
U.S. President Donald Trump said trade deals are stacked against the United States saying that he can't continue to let other countries "rob us blind." Trump singled out China, Japan South Korea and NAFTA members Canada and Mexico.
The Associated Press
Lawrence Martin