A handout picture released by the official website of the Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, shows him speaking during the opening ceremony of the economic conference in Tehran on January 4, 2015. AFP PHOTO / IRANIAN PRESIDENCY WEBSITE == RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / IRANIAN PRESIDENCY WEBSITE" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS ==-/AFP/Getty Images-/AFP / Getty Images
Is something important happening in Iran? President Hassan Rouhani, a well-known pragmatist, over the weekend issued calls for political and economic reforms aimed at alleviating domestic concerns – corruption and inequality chief among them – and at ending Iran's decades-long isolation.
The falling price of oil is, of course, relevant here, but it's just one of the geopolitical stars that seem to be aligning.
A meeting takes place next week in Geneva involving Iran and negotiators from the so-called six-power group (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany). There is optimism the parties are close to reaching a deal on incapacitating Iran's nuclear weapons program. This is not an inconsequential issue for the Middle East.
Mr. Rouhani is evidently positioning himself in the event of an agreement. He even went so far as to suggest that should the hard-line clerics who still wield much of the political and economic power in the country oppose him, he could call for a series of referendums.
The final say on a public consultation belongs to Iran's parliament, which is controlled by Islamist fundamentalists (like much of the rest of the country's major institutions), but Mr. Rouhani appears to be making a canny political play.
Mr. Rouhani could become Iran's great reformer – and the country urgently needs sweeping democratic reforms. Its struggling economy also needs an end to trade sanctions. That won't happen until Iran agrees to its international interlocutors' demands on uranium enrichment. But at least part of the Iranian leadership appears to be willing to take that step.
There is a sense Iran is shifting. The contours of an eventual deal – which must prevent Iran from developing nuclear weaponry – and the reaction to it from Iran's religious establishment, will reveal a great deal about whether the shift is real or merely an illusion.