Twelve months ago, we fearlessly predicted what was to come in 2021.
We even got a few things right. We predicted a federal election, ending with another minority government. We said that Canada would finish the year with more people employed than before the pandemic, and that the unemployment rate would fall below 7 per cent. We said there was zero chance of the Bank of Canada raising its benchmark interest rate in 2021, while also correctly predicting that the market would nevertheless push the yield on the 10-year Government of Canada bond above 1 per cent.
We said that, by the end of 2021, every Canadian who wanted two shots of COVID-19 vaccine would have received it – and that the number of deaths from the pandemic would be lower in the second quarter of the year than the first.
Then there are the things we didn’t get right. We thought the Tokyo Summer Olympics were likely to be postponed, for a second time. We gave 50-50 odds on the year ending with Meng Wanzhou still in Vancouver and the two Michaels still imprisoned in China. And despite predicting an economic rebound, we expected the stock market to struggle, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index finishing the year lower. We also expected crude oil prices to remain below US$60 a barrel.
So what does 2022 have in store? The Globe and Mail editorial board’s crack team of odds-makers is once again foolhardy enough to make book on the likelihood of various things happening, or not. Place your bets.
CANADIAN POLITICS
Odds of a federal election: 0 per cent
Probability of ending the year with a minority government: 100 per cent
Odds of the year ending with Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister: 99 per cent
Odds of Premier Doug Ford’s government winning re-election in Ontario: 67 per cent
Odds of Premier François Legault’s government winning re-election in Quebec: 89 per cent
U.S. POLITICS
Odds of the Republican Party winning a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November mid-term elections: 82 per cent
Odds of a Republican majority in the Senate: 43 per cent
THE ECONOMY
Odds Canada’s unemployment rate, which was 6 per cent in November, will be lower next November: 76 per cent
Odds that unemployment will fall below 5 per cent: 39 per cent
Odds of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates at least once: 94 per cent
Odds of more than three rate increases: 21 per cent
Odds of inflation ending 2022 above 4 per cent: 35 per cent
Odds of the yield on the 10-year Government of Canada bond ending the year above 2 per cent: 71 per cent
Probability of the S&P/TSX Composite Index finishing the year higher: 37 per cent
ENERGY
Odds that, a year from now, West Texas Intermediate crude will be above US$80 a barrel: 25 per cent
Odds it will be below US$50: 25 per cent
Odds that the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will be completed in the next 12 months: 11 per cent
THE PANDEMIC
Probability that vaccines will be approved for children under five years old: 99 per cent
Percentage of Canadian adults who will have received a booster shot by the end of the year: 85 per cent
Percentage who will have received more than one booster shot: 17 per cent
Odds that the number of COVID-19 deaths in Canada in 2022 will be less than in 2021: 80 per cent
Odds that the number of hospitalizations in the second half of 2022 will be less than in the first half: 92 per cent
Odds of the pandemic becoming endemic: 86 per cent
SPORTS
Odds of a financially challenged American NHL team relocating to Canada: 37 per cent
Odds of baseball’s Tampa Bay Rays striking a deal to play half their home games in Montreal: 31 per cent
Odds of the Stanley Cup finals being played: 100 per cent
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