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So long, 2018. The year started with Virtue and Moir ice dancing for gold in Pyeongchang and Trudeau and Freeland foxtrotting for free trade in Washington. The former was a lot more fun to watch, but both worked out pretty well. So what does 2019 have in store?

The Globe and Mail’s crack team of oddsmakers is once again ready to make book on the likelihood of various events happening in 2019.

Let’s begin in Ottawa.

Probability of a federal election in 2019: 100 per cent

Probability the Liberals will be re-elected: 71 per cent

Probability of a Conservative government: 29 per cent

Odds of a majority government: 48 per cent

Probability of an NDP government: 0 per cent

Odds of the NDP falling below 12 seats, and losing official party status: 16 per cent

Odds of the BQ regaining official party status: 11 per cent

Probability of Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party gaining official party status: 9 per cent

Odds of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh winning a seat in a 2019 by-election: 68 per cent

The oil patch

Odds that, one year from now, West Texas Intermediate crude will be trading above US$50 a barrel: 36 per cent

Odds that the gap between WTI and Western Canada Select will be less than US$20 a barrel: 71 per cent

Probability that Ottawa approves the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion before the end of the year: 59 per cent

Odds of this resulting in further litigation: 110 per cent

Odds of Ottawa selling Trans Mountain in 2019: 0 per cent


Probability of a provincial election: 100 per cent

Odds that Premier Rachel Notley and the New Democratic Party will be re-elected: 33 per cent


Probability of Brexit: 90 per cent

Probability that it will happen in a way that makes both Leavers and Remainers unsatisfied: 98 per cent

Odds of a British election in 2019: 82 per cent

Odds that Theresa May will be PM in a year: 41 per cent

The United States

Odds that the Democrats will begin impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump: 91 per cent

Probability that the House of Representatives will vote to impeach Mr. Trump: 37 per cent

Odds of Mr. Trump’s conviction after an impeachment trial in the Senate: 11 per cent

Probability than Donald Trump will be President in 12 months' time: 91 per cent

Odds that more of his current or former associates will be indicted: 100 per cent

Odds that Mr. Trump will get to nominate at least one more Supreme Court justice: 72 per cent

Odds that his nominee will be confirmed: 82 per cent

The economy

Probability of a U.S. recession in 2019: 33 per cent

Of a Canadian recession: 33 per cent

Odds of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates at least two times: 51 per cent

Odds the Bank of Canada will do the same: 41 per cent

Odds that Canada’s unemployment rate will be higher a year from now: 42 per cent

Probability the U.S. rate will rise: 66 per cent

Probability of the Canadian dollar ending the year above 75 US cents: 42 per cent


Probability that Meng Wanzhou will end 2019 still in Canada, fighting extradition: 88 per cent

Probability that Meng Wanzhou will jump bail: 8 per cent

Odds of the United States and China reaching a deal to avert a trade war: 58 per cent


Probability of a Canadian team winning the World Series: 5 per cent

Probability of a Canadian team winning the NBA Championship: 25 per cent

Probability of a Canadian team winning the Stanley Cup: 35 per cent

Probability of Canada getting an eighth NHL team any time in the next five years: 1 per cent

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