Anyone who clung to the hope that 2022 was going to be a better year than its immediate predecessors was likely disabused of their optimism sometime in early March, right about the time the Russian invasion of Ukraine got rolling and inflation started surging.
Painful interest rate hikes, a floundering real estate market, health care strains and the threat of a recession have ensured that this year will end up as an unpleasant memory.
So what about next year? On most days, this space dwells on things that have gone wrong. Today, we’d like to play the optimist and point out those things that are cause for hope in 2023, and beyond.
Fusion power: The promise of nuclear fusion has been around for decades: clean power without carbon emissions or radioactive waste. And cheap, too, since fusion uses the most common element on Earth, hydrogen. But fusion power has always been just over the horizon, until this year.
In December, U.S. scientists achieved “fusion ignition” – meaning a fusion reaction that generated more energy than it consumed. While there are many more technological hurdles to clear, this month’s breakthrough is a critical step toward commercially viable fusion and a future of carbon-free, abundant energy.
Cancer vaccines: The coronavirus pandemic has been a global health, economic and social trauma. But it could end up having a transformative legacy – a vaccine for a broad set of cancers and other lethal diseases.
The mRNA technology used to create some coronavirus vaccines could become a powerful weapon in the fight against melanoma and bowel cancer, able to train the immune system to destroy cancerous cells. Schistosomiasis, one of the most deadly parasitic diseases, could also be treated. Further out on the horizon, mRNA technology could even be used to repair damaged heart tissue.
Liberal democracy: Democracies looked to be on their back foot over the last couple of years. Autocratic regimes in Russia, China, Iran and elsewhere were openly contemptuous of the West.
This year marked the comeback of democracy, although not without cost. Russia’s war on Ukraine has been barbarous, but the Ukrainian army and people first stopped and then rolled back the invaders. The U.S., Canada and other NATO allies demonstrated their willingness to confront Russia, sending a powerful message to other would-be conquerors.
The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion: After years of delay, oil is set to start flowing through the twinned pipeline from Alberta to British Columbia’s coast in late 2023, an important milestone in several ways. In a practical sense, the expanded capacity will enhance the value of Alberta’s oil production with increased access to markets. That means greater certainty for the oil sands and the jobs and economic activity they support. Plus, the income from greater oil shipments will start to defray Ottawa’s $26-billion cost to acquire and build the project.
But the pipeline’s importance is about more than money. Its opening marks a nation-building moment, proof to Albertans that Canada can deliver on its promise to support the province’s main industry, while still pushing to reduce national carbon emissions.
The provinces’ fiscal strength: At the onset of the pandemic, it looked like several provinces were headed toward fiscal crisis, most notably Newfoundland. But this year, such concerns have dwindled – or even disappeared in some cases.
In a July analysis, the Parliamentary Budget Officer said the fiscal gap for the provinces – the amount that they would need to cut spending or raise taxes to have sustainable finances – had nearly disappeared. That conclusion came several months before fall fiscal updates that featured falling deficits or swelling surpluses.
Alberta is the most spectacular example, but the fiscal rebound is widespread: Newfoundland is projecting a surplus this year, four years earlier than previously forecast.
Some provinces may still need to increase taxes or restrain spending. But the kind of drastic action that looked inevitable two years ago now seems unlikely.
Canada: This country has its flaws, past and present. But it remains a haven of peace, order and, most of the time, good government. Just ask any one of the 340,666 people who immigrated here in the first nine months of 2022. They see Canada as a place of hope. We should, too.