Some wars end in absolute victory. The classic example is the Second World War. The Allies demanded unconditional surrender from Germany, and that’s what they imposed, by force of arms. The victors marched all the way to Berlin, declared that the Third Reich no longer existed, occupied every square inch of Germany and assumed the government of the country.
That is not how the war in Ukraine is going to end.
Other wars end with a different kind of absolute victory, due to one side abandoning the enterprise and going home. It can happen when one side’s home is thousands of miles away. Think of the end of United States’ military support for South Vietnam in 1975, or the end of the U.S. and NATO mission in Afghanistan in 2021.
That’s also not how the war in Ukraine is going to end.
And then there are most wars. Most end with both sides reaching some kind of understanding.
The antagonists don’t suddenly start holding hands and singing Kumbaya, but they talk to each other, however briefly, to at least figure out a way to stop shooting. The interest in transitioning from war to talk is usually triggered by one side’s knowledge that it is losing, and its fear of losing even more.
That is how, someday, the Ukraine war is going to end.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade his neighbour was a war of choice, and one he continues to choose to pursue. Any assertion that Ukraine somehow “provoked” Mr. Putin is a sad fiction. His own prewar writings make it clear that what upsets him about Ukraine is its existence and its independence.
He started the war insisting that some or all of Ukraine be absorbed into Russia, with the remainder becoming a vassal. Ukrainians have understandably resisted. They have every right to, and every reason.
Early in the war, negotiators from Ukraine and Russia held a series of talks, in Belarus and Turkey. The Russians expected these to set the terms of Ukraine’s surrender, since carving up the country was supposed to be a mere matter of marching.
Those early talks, not surprisingly, went nowhere. And the war quickly started to go not at all according to Moscow’s plans.
Last spring it was the retreat from Kyiv; this fall have come major retreats and defeats in the East and South. The military initiative, at least for now, has passed to Ukraine.
In August, in an editorial headlined “Why the war in Ukraine won’t end any time soon,” we wrote: “There are no talks to end the war because there is, at least for now, nothing to negotiate. The battlefield is, for the moment, the only site of negotiations.”
That is still true, but the day when there might be something to negotiate is at least closer.
Mr. Putin’s military has suffered tens of thousands of casualties, and has been pushed out of much of the territory it seized. His forces are at a growing technological disadvantage, and he is believed to be running short of precision weapons. And the brutal missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities over the last few days have been more political theatre than military offensive. Designed to impress a Russian audience with the sight of “punishment” being administered to Ukrainian civilians, they do not appear to have diminished Ukraine’s ability to continue to win battles and gain ground.
Mr. Putin has given no hints about building himself an exit ramp from his insane military adventure. But the more Ukraine advances on the battlefield, the more he will have to consider finding a way out.
He has made threats about using nuclear weapons – but he knows that would provoke an exceptionally strong response from the West. It would not end the war in his favour; it would risk triggering the end of many things, including his regime.
If Ukraine continues to advance, the only way Mr. Putin can extract himself from his war, while remaining in power, will be through negotiation. What Ukraine is willing to offer, or if it is willing to give up anything at all, will be for it to decide.
But for now, the West should be quietly laying the groundwork for future conversations. Someday, Mr. Putin – or whoever succeeds him – is going to want to talk. Someday, he is going to have to.