Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif addresses a news conference following nuclear negotiations with European Union's foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.RUBEN SPRICH/Reuters
Don't break out the champagne just yet. Two days of talks earlier this week between the world's major powers and Iran did not make any real progress. They did, however, offer real hope of progress. International sanctions against Iran cannot be lifted until there is a solid treaty setting rigorous limits on the Iranian nuclear program – and there's reason to believe that soon, that might just be possible.
Over the past few years, Iran's on-again, off-again negotiations with the international community have often felt like a deception, or a dance for time. But while talks have been inconclusive, sanctions have not been: they've hobbled Iran's economy. President Hasan Rouhani and his colleagues have reason to badly want an agreement. The tone of the latest meetings has been promising.
Many have asked, not unreasonably, why a country rich in petroleum would need nuclear energy for any peaceful purpose. It's worth noting that Iran has failed to make enough investment in oil refineries and, remarkably, depends on importing its own refined oil back from India. The regime is also still struggling to phase out costly, but popularity-buying, gasoline subsidies.
The obstacles to an agreement remain high. Any Iranian enrichment of uranium must be stringently restricted. To prevent the making of weapon-grade uranium that could be used in missiles, there would have to be an extremely intrusive inspection system, providing access for international monitors at the shortest notice, to any location that arouses suspicion. The evasiveness and equivocation of the Iranian authorities in the past justify strong powers of verification.
During negotiations, there will need to be interim measures to prevent any attempt by the Iranians to exploit their appearances of receptiveness and reasonableness. Israel, with Iranian allies on its borders and still-recent inflammatory rhetoric from Tehran, has cause to worry that Iran could take advantage of delay. So too do a number of other neighbouring states.
Iran claims a "legal right" to enrich uranium, a right it demands be recognized by the international community. It should not be. But a small stockpile of 20-per-cent enriched uranium might be tolerable; even Israel has suggested it could live with Iran having 240 kilograms of the stuff – not more.
Any relaxation of the sanctions would at this point be premature. There's no call for upping the ante – or lowering the drawbridge. But there is hope that we may be dealing with a newly reasonable Iran. Talks reconvene on Nov. 7. The world is watching.