Slowly, steadily, the conviction that crimes against humanity and war crimes must be addressed - no matter how long it takes, no matter how important the perpetrator - is gaining credence in world councils. Thirteen years after the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) first indicted Radovan Karadzic for his starring role in the genocide of 8,000 Muslim men and boys in Srebrenica and the medieval-style siege of Sarajevo, among other atrocities, the former Bosnian Serb leader has finally been detained.
His arrest - by Serb authorities, no less - sends a message that the historic expectation that leaders who commit crimes of this magnitude will remain immune from prosecution may be drawing to a close. International criminal justice is still a work in progress, but I believe we will look back on this stellar event as a significant signpost along the road to accountability.
The realization that Mr. Karadzic's impunity has dissolved will be especially important to Bosnian Muslims, many of whom barely managed to survive the former president's policies of murder, ethnic cleansing and rape camps as a means of achieving his political goals. There has been growing cynicism in this community about the failure of NATO and the U.S., in particular, to apprehend Mr. Karadzic and deliver him to the ICTY in The Hague. (The new international courts, including the ICTY, do not have their own police force and are dependent upon others to conduct arrests.) This capture, and the hint that his military commander Ratko Mladic's arrest will not lag far behind, will strengthen support for the tribunal among the victims, perhaps including backing for the idea that long-term peace and security may ultimately depend upon bringing war criminals to account under international law, thus breaking the cycles of revenge.
For years, the chances of bringing Mr. Karadzic to justice looked increasingly slim. He remained a hero to Bosnian Serb nationalists, which meant that he continued to have legions of supporters who identified with him and would protect him, if necessary. As a fugitive he was cocky in the extreme: He even published a book of poetry while allegedly on the run, and there were reports of regular sightings. In the end, only the government of Serbia was in a position to "find" him. But Serbia had been mostly unco-operative, to the frustration of a succession of ICTY prosecutors, including Canada's Louise Arbour, who understood better than anyone that the legacy of the court would depend, in large measure, on seeing this man in the dock.
But politics turns on national interests and these change with time, along with public attitudes. When former Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic was indicted by the ICTY in 1999 and sent to The Hague, his supporters in Belgrade murdered the country's pro-Western president, Zoran Djindjic, who had effected the arrest and transfer. By 2007, however, the reformed Serbian justice system had completed a trial and convicted 12 perpetrators, bringing the country closer to Western standards of justice. Although Serb opinion remains divided with regard to the ICTY, with many believing the court is anti-Serb, there are now other pressing realities to consider. Serbia has become increasingly marginalized and impoverished as it has watched its neighbours join the European Union. But the EU has insisted that Serbia's process of accession would need to start with the arrests of Messrs. Karadzic and Mladic: in other words, with a commitment to human rights and accountability.
Serbian President Boris Tadic made this happen by successfully creating a governing coalition that incorporated some of the country's nationalist parties, including the party of Mr. Milosevic. Once these were in the fold, the likelihood of another assassination was diminished (if not entirely sidelined).
The big picture is that the arrest of Mr. Karadzic, the man who orchestrated the worst abuses committed in Europe since the Second World War, will intensify the commitment of the global community to international criminal justice and benefit the several courts that are trying perpetrators from various conflicts. Most important, it will likely enhance support for the new International Criminal Court, the world's first permanent tribunal to try the major offences of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes, which has yet to open its first case.
There will always be tensions between great power and the rule of international law, but the balance has begun to shift ever so slightly. In a dark world, that in itself is cause for cautious optimism.
Erna Paris's most recent book is The Sun Climbs Slow: Justice
in the Age of Imperial America.