A lot has happened since Wildrose leader Danielle Smith stunned the political world late last year, defecting to the governing Progressive Conservatives and taking eight of her MLAs with her. This, after two other MLAs had earlier deserted party ranks.
At the time, there were dark predictions that Alberta was about to enter another sustained period of opposition-free rule, a phenomenon the province has known far too often. Wildrose had been reduced to a shell-shocked rump of five MLAs. The Liberals were leaderless and in disarray. The New Democrats had a bright, articulate new leader but was never expected to be much more than an Edmonton-based destination for disgruntled civil servants and the small cabal of lefties who lived in Alberta.
Many saw Premier Jim Prentice's plan to call an early spring election as an intentional ploy to exploit the disarray and uncertainty that seemingly existed among the enemy camps. But the Tories' strategy may not be as genius as it once appeared.
Ms. Smith's once ascendant political career is over. She recently lost the PC nomination in her riding of Highwood, a victim of a local constituency leadership that was not prepared to be represented by someone who had spent years smearing the Tory brand. Nor were party members much inclined to be represented by a person who would forever be associated with one of the greatest acts of political betrayal in the country's history.
In fact, there are many Tory members in Highwood and elsewhere still furious with Mr. Prentice for ever welcoming the Wildrosers in the first place.
On the same day Ms. Smith was getting dumped, former Conservative MP Brian Jean was being elected as the new leader of Wildrose. The party is now in the hands of a capable politician to whom the average Alberta can relate. In the final stretch of the leadership race, Mr. Jean lost his 24-year-old son to cancer, a heart-breaking development that he handled with extraordinary grace and resolve.
Before all this, Mr. Prentice had to deliver the budget he'd been warning Albertans about. It was as bad as he had been suggesting and included the highest tax increases the province had seen in a generation as well as job and program cuts. Even so, it included a $5-billion deficit.
It would appear that Albertans have now had a chance to digest everything they have witnessed over the last several months and concluded they are not impressed.
Two fresh polls show the Conservatives and Wildrose in a legitimate, two-way fight for power in the province, with the NDP poised to capture most, if not all, of the ridings in Edmonton.
Of course, all political polls need to be treated judiciously. But the numbers in Edmonton reflect feedback the Tories were getting themselves about the NDP's growing strength there. The rise of the Wildrose is certainly a shock given the party's travails of late and there is certainly a possibility their neck-and-neck status with the PCs gives a false impression. Then again, it may well be real and reflect deep annoyance over the role the governing party is suspected to have performed in the mass decampment of Wildrose MLAs late last year. People don't ever like to feel they've been played. Perhaps it's occurred to Albertans that having a healthy opposition that holds the government to account has actually been a good thing for the province in recent years.
Or maybe it's simply that a broad swath of voters want no part of the bitter medicine Mr. Prentice is trying to feed them. When you've paid nominal taxes for most of your life, having that perk taken away can make one angry and resentful. Politicians can't be entitled, but the public sure can be.
The Tories' own polling shows that the party has taken a hit recently, to what extent, no one is saying. But is it enough to dissuade the Premier from going ahead with a spring campaign that he has all but announced and has insisted is necessary to legitimize his controversial fiscal plan?
My guess is it won't be – in fact, it can't be. He's made his political bed and now it's time to sleep in it, no matter how uncomfortable it presently feels.
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Gary Mason