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For months, polls on Canadian voter intentions were hardly moving. One survey looked pretty much the same as the next. In recent weeks, however, this has changed, prompting people to wonder why.

Some argue that declining "response rates" (a term for the fact that fewer people agree to do phone interviews than in the past) must be making polls less reliable. It's a reasonable guess, but our evidence points in another direction. The fact is, lots of voters are changing their minds, some pretty often.

Half the people we surveyed say they've changed their mind at least once in the past few months, and more than one in four say they've been changing their mind repeatedly. Outside of an election campaign, this level of volatility is unusual, and maybe unprecedented.

The very fact that 28 per cent of respondents say they have changed their mind repeatedly can more than account for the recent fluctuations in poll results.

These volatile voters are different from the classic "undecided" voter, who often has a weak interest in politics. These volatile voters respond to events of the day, such as the Gomery inquiry, the debate over election timing and the functioning of the House of Commons. Most give us an answer when we ask how they will vote, because they actually feel decided at that moment. But, as the next episode in the political struggle plays itself out, they question their previous decision.

And so we've seen some rapid opinion swings in recent months.

After the publication ban on Gomery testimony was lifted, and Jean Brault's revelations dominated the news, Liberal support plummeted.

Then, when Paul Martin took to the airwaves and committed to an election after the release of the Gomery report, the trend reversed. Lots of people watched the televised address; many more heard and read about it. As Mr. Martin and Stephen Harper began to debate an election now versus later, voters started to move away from the Conservatives.

What can we say about these voters who have been changing their mind repeatedly in recent months?

For one thing, they are found in large proportions in every region of the country. For another, they are more likely to be women. And they tend to be between 25 and 44.

Right now, 36 per cent of them would vote Liberal, 27 per cent NDP and 24 per cent Conservative.

Sixty per cent say they "want to vote for a change in government, but don't feel comfortable with the idea of electing a Conservative government led by Stephen Harper." This is about 8 per cent above the national average who feel this way.

Fifty-eight per cent say they "don't feel comfortable with a Conservative government led by Stephen Harper, but don't want to elect the Liberals either." That's 11 points above the national average.

Fifty-one per cent say they would vote for the NDP or the Green Party but "fear I'll end up with a government I really don't want." That's 6 points above the national average.

Such volatility is recent, but reasons for it are not entirely new.

Declining voter engagement: Fewer people have been paying attention to politics, especially federal politics, for almost a decade.

Looser attachment to parties: Previous generations of voters were more likely to identify themselves as supporters of one party or another. Today's voter is more likely to see herself as non-partisan.

Party realignment: The emergence of the Bloc Québécois, the Reform Party, the Canadian Alliance and the new Conservative Party has made voter choice and allegiance data more unstable and unpredictable.

No central, defining issue: While the federal sponsorship scandal has captured attention, most voters don't really agree on a central demand of Ottawa right now. Nothing approaches the past rallying power of massive deficits, spiralling interest rates, rising unemployment, free trade or a constitutional crisis.

Discomfort with leading choices: Voters believe the Liberals or the Conservatives will win the next election, and many are uncomfortable with either of those outcomes. But in English Canada anyway, many resist voting for another party because they are as preoccupied with avoiding the government they want least, as with electing the government they want most.

There will undoubtedly be more twists and turns in the political debate leading up to the next election. It remains to be seen whether these swing voters will develop a more firmly rooted position and, if they do, whether it will be a negative option or a positive choice. All they can tell us right now is that their votes are up for grabs.

Bruce Anderson is CEO of Decima Research.

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