In the last election, the District of Columbia voted 91 per cent for Hillary Clinton, 4 per cent for Donald Trump. A mere 87-per-cent spread.
Everywhere you go in Washington, you find the U.S. President's prophets of doom. At the ballpark of the Washington Nationals the other day, fans were standing in the shade of the mezzanine debating not the team's woeful bullpen, but the President's woeful future.
"No way Trump will last," offered one person. "But nobody's talking about the alternative. Trump goes and we get Mike Pence, one of those religious right-wing wackos."
For subscribers: Trump's Team of Bibles set to launch conservative Christian agenda
Mr. Trump's Vice-President, as the fan suggested, is flying well under the radar these days. While he is no wacko, few would dispute his antiquarian passions. If the Republican Party had a Cro-Magnon wing, Mike Pence would be a charter member.
On the larger question of his chances of inheriting the Oval Office, they're getting better by the week.
Mr. Pence is sitting pretty. Of the 47 men who served as VP before this pious fellow, 14 became president – that's 30 per cent. Factor in that the former Indiana governor is serving under a President named Trump and the odds escalate.
The President who owns more mirrors than books has to survive alleged obstruction of justice, alleged Russian collusion in the election and whatever else might arise. If he avoids impeachment, he still faces the possibility that plummeting popularity could prompt the party to turn to second-in-command Mr. Pence. À la Gerald Ford, he will come forward to announce, "Our long national nightmare is over."
After all the Trump-driven upheavals, one can expect an American appetite for a return to normalcy. Mr. Pence, who has the look of a veteran stamp collector, is dull enough to fit the bill. His personality has been compared to that of a Teleprompter. His favourite movie is The Wizard of Oz. His speeches incite his audiences to pray hard.
He's been a governor, spent seven years as a talk-show host and, like Mr. Ford, was a long-time congressman. On Ford comparisons, we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. But it might not be too rich to imagine a day when Mr. Pence quietly offers a pardon to Mr. Trump in exchange for the reins.
Any Pence parallels with the former president, however, come to a skidding halt when one looks at his policy chart.
As governor, Mr. Pence signed in a law allowing businesses to refuse to provide service to same-sex couples. He was so anti-gay he advocated the use of taxpayer dollars for conversion therapy.
Mr. Pence has pushed for the teaching of creationism in public schools. He signed a bill requiring burial or cremation of aborted fetuses.
He loves guns, hates Greens or anything smacking of environmental protection. He opposed the settlement of Syrian refugees in his state.
His reactionary ways go beyond Bible-thumping, but Mr. Trump picked him primarily to shore up religious-right support, which he has done.
Mr. Pence has also done well in walking the fine line that his position requires. He can't be disloyal but with this President he certainly can't be too cozy either.
So he has given speeches saying America is getting great again, has avoided criticizing Mr. Trump on the James Comey firing, has tied himself in knots in trying to make the administration look guilt-free on the Michael Flynn scandal.
Commentators have decried him for shameless toadying. But recently, he has carved out some distance from Mr. Trump and the reviews are getting better. He reaffirmed allegiance to "cherished ally" Britain, expressed his country's support for NATO's collective defence obligations after the Trump hesitation and has criticized Russian expansionism.
On other sensitive subjects, Mr. Pence, whose regressive social views have much support with the Republican base, gives the impression he's been left out of the loop.
It's a smart strategy: Who would want to be in that loop? Better to steer clear, let Donald Charlatan proceed with his grave digging and allow a Ford scenario to come to pass.
Lawrence Martin