Justin Trudeau has been remarkably successful in handling federal-provincial relations. To cement that legacy, he might want to consider losing the next election.
Whoever is prime minister after 2019 could confront a far less co-operative collection of premiers, should Alberta and Ontario voters choose to elect conservative governments. History tells us that when those two provinces decide to check the federal power, that power is well and truly checked.
But first, kudos.
From the time of the Great Depression, Liberal governments in Ottawa have sought to bend provincial governments to their will, cajoling, bribing or coercing them into joining federal nation-building enterprises.
Some of those initiatives, such as unemployment insurance, public health care and the Canada Pension Plan, have proven worthwhile. But the cost was a decade-after-decade increase in tensions between Ottawa and the provinces, which chafed at federal intrusions into their constitutional turf. They especially resented the federal penchant for roping provincial governments into shared-cost programs, and then defunding the federal portion down the road, leaving the provinces holding the fiscal bag.
Stephen Harper believed a better approach was for Ottawa to respect provincial jurisdictions, which brought a decade of peace (with the exception of the odd flare-up). Justin Trudeau, however, arrived in office with big plans to improve health care and fight climate change. And that meant once again bullying the provinces.
But he has been a very gentle bully. Mr. Trudeau and his ministers wooed rather than coerced their counterparts, convincing them to increase their spending on mental health and home care, and to take action to fight climate change, by handing out plenty of carrots and keeping the stick out of sight.
It helped as well that Mr. Trudeau's most senior advisers, Gerald Butts and Katie Telford, spent years at Queen's Park, and know the importance of cultivating respectful relations among capitals. One consequence: The Liberals in Ottawa always stressed that the provincial governments were free to meet federal targets in whichever way they saw fit.
The biggest advantage for Mr. Trudeau is that he has, in Rachel Notley and Kathleen Wynne, premiers who also consider the fight against global warming a top priority and who were willing to increase spending on health care. Without their co-operation, the Liberals would have had a much tougher row to hoe.
But all that could be about to change. Rachel Notley has struggled to implement her activist agenda while also containing the damage from the collapse in oil prices. The United Conservative Party could bring her down when Albertans go to the polls in 2019.
Athough Ms. Wynne's unpopularity appears to have bottomed out, anyone forced to place a bet would probably be wise to put their money on Conservative Leader Patrick Brown. After 14 years of Liberal rule at Queen's Park, it's probably time for a change.
Conservative governments in Alberta and Ontario would resist accepting any conditions on federal health transfers. They would insist that they will fight climate change their way, at their pace. As for any new initiatives – in subsidized housing, say, or child care, or postsecondary education – forget about it.
Whenever Alberta and Ontario are on the same page, they wield an effective veto over federal ambitions. Alberta Premier Ralph Klein and Ontario Premier Mike Harris, for example, helped frustrate Jean Chretien's efforts to impose a greater federal role in health care. If conservatives win power in Alberta and Ontario, the handling of federal-provincial relations could become a much tougher file for the Liberals.
That assumes, of course, that they return to power after the 2019 general election. Andrew Scheer could plausibly argue that a Conservative government would do a better job of managing the changed federal-provincial landscape. And if Jagmeet Singh wins the NDP leadership contest this fall, the NDP could attract immigrant voters, costing the Liberals seats in suburban Ontario and British Columbia and repulsing the Liberal bridgehead in Calgary and Edmonton.
Mr. Trudeau might not have an opportunity to confront obstreperous premiers in Alberta and Ontario in a second term. And if he does, he might look back on his first term with nostalgia.
John Ibbitson