The concept of strategic voting becomes more important in this election campaign as emotions rise and polarization grows. Increasingly, the question is whether you are for or against Conservative Leader Stephen Harper. Refugees, recession, perceived general nastiness – feelings are running high.
From Conservatives, you hear, "We have enough votes if the others split theirs." From the others, "How best to get rid of him?" Go Liberal or New Democrat? Justin Trudeau or Thomas Mulcair?
No longer do most Canadians inherit their political loyalties. Today, parties are increasingly vehicles of convenience. So for the considerable majority (according to opinion polls) of voters who want to see the back of Mr. Harper, how can this be done? That is where strategic voting comes in – deciding which of the opposition candidates has the best chance of defeating the Conservative candidate in your riding, and plonking your vote there. At the national level, the vote is too close for much guidance. But at the riding level, where we actually vote, the Liberals and New Democrats are doing their best to persuade voters that their local candidate is the way to see the end of the Harper government. Logical.
But now a deeper thought: When the election is over, it is almost certain that there will not be a majority for anyone. So we must ask, might one of the opposition parties support Mr. Harper so he continues as Prime Minister?
The constitutional convention goes like this: After the election, the Governor-General will first seek advice from the current Prime Minister. The Governor-General, of course, will have the election results for the other parties in mind.
Opinion polls have been shifting and there are still five weeks to go in the campaign. One party is ahead, then another. But let's say something like a three-way split is the end result. The ball is now in the Governor-General's court.
At their first meeting, Mr. Harper could say, "I do not have a majority, but under our constitutional law all that is required for you to continue having me as Prime Minister is that I can command the confidence of the House of Commons. I believe I can do that."
Note that "confidence" does not mean they all love you. It just means you don't lose a "confidence" vote on the floor of the House, such as the first main vote (on the Throne Speech) and on the budget.
The Governor-General must accept the Prime Minister's advice unless there is good reason otherwise, as could be the case if the New Democrats and Liberals stand mute or ambivalent, without some plan of co-operation. If that were to happen, could a continuing Harper administration survive? Yes, indeed – with Liberal support.
To understand why that is, we need to understand the deepest interest of the parties, which is far more important than their transient policies. That interest is survival to fight another day. Canada's political culture will always include a conservative party and a leftist party. Our endangered species is the centrist Liberals, squeezed out between the left and right (that happened to the long-governing Liberals in Britain 100 years ago, and they never came back). Similar left-right polarization is gradually happening in our provinces.
Thus a Mulcair administration, conferring national governmental stature on the NDP, is the one thing the Liberal Party cannot have; it would threaten the party's continuing existence. So the Liberals would support neither the NDP nor the Conservatives, but would not kill the Conservative government right away. From Mr. Trudeau would come something like, "The Governor-General has given Mr. Harper a chance to meet the House, the people don't want another election and we will listen. He'd better not do X or Y and he'd better do Z, but given that, we'll wait and see."
The advantage for the Liberals would be that they get to defeat the Tory government at a time of their choosing and keep the dreaded NDP out of power for now. (That possibility is another factor for strategic voters to consider, but it involves more of Mr. Harper.)
If the Governor-General were to call upon Mr. Mulcair to form the government, the Liberal incentive to defeat him at once would be strong but deeply unpopular, so he would likely be around for a while. Long-term Liberal hopes would fade by the month, assuming good government. And if Mr. Trudeau were to get the nod? The almost-made-it NDP would want a rapid rematch and the Conservatives (with a new leader) would likely accommodate.
Any scenario would be unstable. No fun.