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On Sept. 20, Canadians will choose, in the middle of a pandemic, between federal parties who hope to tilt the balance of the minority Parliament. Together with CTV and Nanos Research, The Globe and Mail did daily surveys to track which party and leader Canadians preferred. The last of those surveys was released on Sept. 19. Learn more below about the results and methodology.

Federal election results: Justin Trudeau’s Liberals win third consecutive election, fall short of a majority

Read the full methodology: tgam.ca/election-polls

SURVEY METHODOLOGY

A national random telephone survey (land- and cell-line sample using live agents) of 1,200 Canadians was conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over three-day periods. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters was interviewed. The daily tracking figures were based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing was added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2016 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada.

Nanos also compiled a weekly “Party Power Index” that measured federal party brands based on four of the poll questions. Learn more about how the index works here.

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SURVEY QUESTIONS

  • What is your most important national issue of concern?
  • For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. (The parties, listed in randomized order by the pollster, are the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP, Bloc Québécois, Greens and People’s Party.)
  • For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences?
  • (For undecided respondents) Are you currently leaning towards any particular federal party? If you are, which party would that be?
  • As you may know, at the federal level, (rotate order of names) Justin Trudeau is the leader of Liberal Party, Erin O’Toole is the leader of the Conservative Party, Yves-François Blanchet is the leader of the Bloc Québécois, Jagmeet Singh is the leader of the NDP, Annamie Paul is leader of the Green Party, and Maxime Bernier is the leader of the People’s Party of Canada. Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current preferences for Prime Minister?
  • For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? (The leaders, listed in randomized order by the pollster, are Justin Trudeau, Erin O’Toole, Jagmeet Singh, Yves-François Blanchet, Annamie Paul and Maxime Bernier.)
  • On a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 is you will absolutely vote in person and 10 is you will absolutely vote by mail, how do you think you will cast your vote in the upcoming federal election?

ARCHIVE OF RESULTS (BY RELEASE DATE)


Federal election 2021: More from The Globe and Mail

Explainers

Election guide: Latest updates and essential reading

How to vote by mail in Canada’s federal election

What are the challenges facing the major political parties?

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Almost half of Canadians disapprove of Trudeau government’s handling of Afghanistan evacuations

Poll shows three-quarters of Canadians don’t see the federal election as necessary

Nik Nanos: Canadians support proof of vaccination rules, they just don’t want to make things awkward

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