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Montreal, Sept. 21: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau takes a selfie with a supporter at the Jarry Metro station the morning after his Liberal Party won a new minority government.Carlos Osorio/Reuters
- Seat count and regional breakdown
- Voter demographics, mail-in ballots and historical trends
- Notable candidates who won and lost
- What next for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals?
- What next for Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives?
- What next for the NDP, Bloc and Green parties?
- People’s Party: No breakthrough for far right
- More election reading
Table of contents
Election 2021: Latest updates
- Justin Trudeau didn’t get the Liberal majority he hoped for in Monday’s election, but with 158 seats – leading or elected – the party is set to govern in a 44th Parliament that looks largely the same as the 43rd. Now, Mr. Trudeau is likely to face demands from the NDP and Bloc Québécois and questions from his caucus about whether the snap election was worth it.
- Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole launched a review of of the party’s electoral strategy, saying he was disappointed it did not do better. He’s said he’s willing to stay on as leader for the next election, as has the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh, who said he felt “really confident” he still has members’ support.
- The parties may be at a stalemate nationally, but at the regional and local level, some clear winners, losers and general trends emerged. Conservatives made gains in the Maritimes, but lost some Alberta seats to progressive parties; Liberals had a strong showing in densely populated ridings with higher proportions of visible minorities.
Election results: Seat count and regional breakdown
Before and after: Seats by party at dissolution vs. seats currently leading or elected
Before
After
Majority: 170
155
Liberal
158
119
Cons.
119
32
BQ
34
24
NDP
25
2
Green
2
5
Ind.
0
THE GLOBE AND MAIL
Before and after: Seats by party at dissolution vs. seats currently leading or elected
Before
After
Majority: 170
155
Liberal
158
119
Cons.
119
32
BQ
34
24
NDP
25
2
Green
2
5
Ind.
0
THE GLOBE AND MAIL
Before and after: Seats by party at dissolution vs. seats currently leading or elected
Before
After
Majority: 170
155
Liberal
158
119
Cons.
119
32
BQ
34
24
NDP
25
2
Green
2
5
Ind.
0
THE GLOBE AND MAIL
To form a majority, a party needs 170 or more MPs in the 338-member House of Commons. As of Thursday, after most mail-in ballots had been counted (more on those later), the seat-holding parties were leading or elected in almost exactly the same number of seats they had when Parliament was dissolved on Aug. 15. At least part of that can be explained by seats where Independent MPs booted from the Liberal and Conservative caucuses didn’t run for re-election. In other cases, a party’s small victories in some regions only offset losses in others.
To see who won in your riding and home province, go to our results data page. You can filter by region under the “ridings by category” section, or search the national map under “ridings across Canada.”
Regional breakdown of seats won
by each political party
As of Sept. 22
B.C.
PRAIRIES
15
Liberal
51
Cons.
13
Cons.
6
Liberal
13
NDP
5
NDP
1
Green
ONTARIO
QUEBEC
34
BQ
78
Liberal
33
Liberal
37
Cons.
5
NDP
10
Cons.
1
Green
1
NDP
ATLANTIC
TERRITORIES
24
Liberal
2
Liberal
8
Cons.
1
NDP
THE GLOBE AND MAIL
Regional breakdown of seats won
by each political party
As of Sept. 22
B.C.
PRAIRIES
15
Liberal
51
Cons.
13
Cons.
6
Liberal
13
NDP
5
NDP
1
Green
ONTARIO
QUEBEC
78
Liberal
34
BQ
37
Cons.
33
Liberal
5
NDP
10
Cons.
1
Green
1
NDP
ATLANTIC
TERRITORIES
24
Liberal
2
Liberal
8
Cons.
1
NDP
THE GLOBE AND MAIL
Regional breakdown of seats won
by each political party
As of Sept. 22
B.C.
PRAIRIES
ONTARIO
15
Liberal
51
Cons.
78
Liberal
13
Cons.
6
Liberal
37
Cons.
13
NDP
5
NDP
5
NDP
1
Green
1
Green
TERRITORIES
QUEBEC
ATLANTIC
2
Liberal
34
BQ
24
Liberal
1
NDP
33
Liberal
8
Cons.
10
Cons.
1
NDP
THE GLOBE AND MAIL
Which regions changed hands the most?
- Atlantic Canada: The Conservatives’ efforts to flip ridings in the Maritimes appeared to pay off somewhat. By Tuesday, Tories were leading or elected in eight ridings, up from four in 2019 and zero in 2015, but most seats remained with the Liberals. In Fredericton, Jenica Atwin – who ran successfully as a Green in 2019, then crossed over to the Liberals this year – is ahead in a close race with Conservative candidate Andrea Johnson.
- Alberta: Most of the province is still Conservative blue, but two urban ridings switched to progressive parties (Calgary Skyview to the Liberals and Edmonton Griesbach to the NDP), while a third seat, Edmonton Centre, is too close to call. NDP incumbent Healther McPherson kept her riding of Edmonton Strathcona. A possible reason for the Liberal and NDP gains is Alberta’s contentious COVID-19 response: United Conservative Premier Jason Kenney long resisted introducing a vaccine passport system, and Mr. O’Toole encouraged that course; now that caseloads are rising again, so has anger at their conservative parties.
Voter demographics, mail-in ballots and historical trends
Popular vote
In a heavily split election, the Trudeau Liberals won 32.4 per cent of the popular vote, a smaller share than any other winning party before them. The distribution of those votes is strongly regional: Liberal support was highest in the Atlantic provinces and lowest in the West.
Popular vote distribution by provinces
and territories
Liberal
Con.
NDP
BQ
Green
PPC
Others
100%
Nfld.
100
PEI
100
N.S.
100
N.B.
100
Ont.
100
NWT
100
Nun.
100
Que.
100
Yukon
100
Man.
100
B.C.
100
Alta.
100
Sask.
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: the CANADIAN PRESS
Popular vote distribution by provinces and territories
Liberal
Con.
NDP
BQ
Green
PPC
Others
100%
Nfld.
100
PEI
100
N.S.
100
N.B.
100
Ont.
100
NWT
100
Nun.
100
Que.
100
Yukon
100
Man.
100
B.C.
100
Alta.
100
Sask.
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: the CANADIAN PRESS
Popular vote distribution by provinces and territories
Liberal
Con.
NDP
BQ
Green
PPC
Others
100%
Nfld.
100
PEI
100
N.S.
100
N.B.
100
Ont.
100
NWT
100
Nun.
100
Que.
100
Yukon
100
Man.
100
B.C.
100
Alta.
100
Sask.
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: the CANADIAN PRESS
Voter turnout
Turnout wasn’t the weakest it’s ever been for a federally organized vote – for that you’d have to go to 1898′s national plebiscite on prohibition, which had only 44-per-cent participation – but it was a return to the relatively low 60-per-cent range of the 2000s, according to Elections Canada’s preliminary findings.
Mail-in ballots
Because of COVID-19 restrictions and the delays they were expected to cause on election day, more Canadians than ever before voted by mail or in advance polls. Elections Canada was ready for the surge but decided to start counting mail-in ballots on Tuesday so officials could check that those voters didn’t also vote in person. Here are Elections Canada’s live estimates of how many special ballots have been counted in each riding to date.
Demographics
Voters’ support for the major parties depended heavily on what region they live in, whether they’re from urban or rural communities and how much money they earn, a Globe and Mail analysis found. The Liberals had the most success in ridings with high population density (such as cities and their suburbs), average household incomes slightly above the national median (about $71,000) and higher proportions of visible minorities (32 per cent). Ridings that went Conservative, by contrast, were low-density, had household incomes of about $78,600 and only 10 per cent visible-minority populations.
Notable candidates who won and lost
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Fisheries Minister Bernadette Jordan speaks at the keel-laying ceremony of the future HMCS William Hall in Halifax this past Feburary.Andrew Vaughan/The Canadian Press
Losers
- Bernadette Jordan and Maryam Monsef: Two of Mr. Trudeau’s cabinet ministers (fisheries and women and gender equality, respectively) lost their seats to Conservatives (in Nova Scotia and Ontario, respectively). Ms. Jordan was the Trudeau government’s point person in the contentious Mi’kmaq fishery dispute, while Ms. Monsef, an Afghan-Canadian MP, was criticized for the way she worded an appeal to the Taliban to let refugees leave Afghanistan.
- Avi Lewis: A New Democrat star candidate, who is author Naomi Klein’s husband and the son of former Ontario NDP leader Stephen Lewis, fell into third place in a West Vancouver riding.
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Leslyn Lewis speaks at a French-language Conservative leadership debate in June of 2020.Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press
Winners
- Leslyn Lewis: A lawyer who reached third place in the 2020 Conservative leadership campaign, Ms. Lewis kept Ontario’s Haldimand-Norfolk riding in the Tory fold after incumbent and Harper-era cabinet minister Diane Finley quit in May.
- Mike Morrice: The Green candidate in Kitchener Centre took the lead in the Ontario riding where the Liberal incumbent, Raj Saini, halted his campaign amid sexual-misconduct allegations that he denies.
What next for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals?
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Mr. Trudeau leaves the Fairmount Queen Elizabeth Hotel in Montreal after delivering his victory speech.ANDREJ IVANOV/AFP via Getty Images
When Mr. Trudeau called the election in mid-August, it was a calculated risk that the Liberals, who then looked strong in public opinion polls, would emerge with a majority, as many provincial governing parties did when they held elections during the pandemic. It didn’t work, and while the Liberals are no worse off than before, Mr. Trudeau will face questions from the public, the opposition and potentially his own caucus about why the snap election was necessary. He didn’t address those questions in his speech Monday night, focusing instead on the millions who supported the Liberals:
You are sending us back to work with a clear mandate to get Canada through this pandemic, and to the brighter days ahead – and my friends, that's exactly what we are ready to do.
There are still votes to be counted. But what we've seen tonight is that millions of Canadians have chosen a progressive plan. Some have talked about division, but that's not what I see. That's not what I've seen these past weeks, across the country. I see Canadians, standing together.
What next for Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives?
Watch: Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole speaks to supporters on Monday night, criticized the snap election and vowing to lead the Tories in the next campaign.
The Globe and Mail
When Mr. O’Toole became leader, many in the party hoped his shift to the centre (and away from the socially conservative, anti-carbon-tax rhetoric of his predecessor, Andrew Scheer) would break the Liberal minority. It didn’t work, but Mr. O’Toole told Conservatives on election night that he is ready to regroup for the next campaign:
A few months ago, I told Conservatives that our party needed the courage to change because Canada has changed. Over the past 36 days, we have demonstrated to Canadians that we have set out on a path to engage more Canadians in our Conservative movement.
... In the months ahead, as Mr. Trudeau gears up for yet another election, we must continue this journey to welcoming more Canadians to take another look at our party.
What next for the NDP, Bloc and Greens?
NDP
For the past two years, the New Democrats kept the Trudeau Liberals in power in exchange for progressive concessions on legislation. In this election, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s goal was to get a significant boost in seats, and hence leverage, by promising stronger action on climate policy and child care than what the Liberals proposed. It didn’t work; the party’s standing is only slightly better than before. On Monday night, Mr. Singh assured voters that the party’s campaign slogan, “Fighting for you,” would hold true in a minority Parliament:
I want to thank Canadians for voting. And I want to let Canadians know that you can count on New Democrats to continue fighting for you. As we fought for you in the pandemic when times were difficult, when people were struggling ... we were there for you.
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Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet speaks at his election night event in Montreal.Bernard Brault/Reuters
Bloc
On the campaign trail, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet said his dream was to win 40 of Quebec’s 78 ridings. It didn’t work – as of midday Tuesday, the separatist party was leading or elected in 34 ridings, up from 32 before dissolution – and ridings that Bloc candidates hoped to take from federalists, such as Liberal-held Sherbrooke, remained out of reach. As results came in on election night, Mr. Blanchet told supporters he was proud of the issues he’d campaigned for and would carry on:
We still have, with a positive approach, with confidence, the duty to do more, to do better.
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Green Leader Annamie Paul greets supporters at Toronto's Berkeley Fieldhouse on election night.Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail
Greens
This campaign was a war on multiple fronts for the Greens, who had seen a high-profile MP defect to the Liberals and a messy internal dispute about racism and Middle East policy. Leader Annamie Paul spent most of the campaign in Toronto Centre, where she hoped to gain a seat. It didn’t work, but as of Tuesday the party was on track for the same number of seats as before, with Mike Morrice in the lead in Kitchener Centre. Ms. Paul stressed the need to bridge divides between Canadians after the election:
So we are now back to the status quo, except we are returning, unfortunately, more divided and more polarized than before this election was called. We need to repair these divisions.
People’s Party: No seats, but a surge in the popular vote
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Maxime Bernier of the People's Party of Canada speaks at a Sept. 16 protest rally outside CBC headquarters in Toronto.Chris Helgren/Reuters
Maxime Bernier’s far-right party hoped it would get its first seat in this election. It didn’t work, though its share of the popular vote increased to 5 per cent from 2 per cent in 2019. Mr. Bernier – whose party was criticized throughout the campaign for spreading COVID-19 misinformation, promoting anti-immigration policies that won praise from white nationalists and calling Mr. Trudeau a “fascist psychopath” – said the popular vote was a “huge victory” that the PPC would build on:
We’re the only real conservative option for this country. This party will grow – we’re here to stay.
More on the election
Video
Justin Trudeau’s Liberals will form another minority government, but what comes next? Globe chief political writer Campbell Clark and politics reporter Laura Stone discuss the challenges ahead for the Liberal and Conservative leaders.
The Globe and Mail
The Decibel podcast
Opinion: Power and politics
Robyn Urback: If this election was a test of leadership, all of them failed
Andrew Coyne: A battle between fear and loathing that both sides lost
Gary Mason: O’Toole and Conservatives brace for an ugly war over his shift to the left
Opinion: The economic stakes
Patrick Brethour: All parties failed to provide a plan to tackle Canada’s economic malaise
Explainers: The big issues
The 12 key economic challenges facing the next government
Polls: The public’s pulse
What the Nanos-Globe-CTV numbers said ahead of Sept. 20's vote
Slim majority of Canadians open to paying more to help cut Canada’s emissions, poll shows
Almost half of Canadians disapprove of Trudeau government’s handling of Afghanistan evacuations
Compiled by Globe staff
With reports from Krisky Kirkup, Marieke Walsh, Laura Stone, Menaka Raman-Wilms, Bill Curry, Robert Fife, Steven Chase, James Keller, Ian Bailey, Carrie Tait, Justine Hunter, Karen Howlett, Kathryn Blaze Baum and The Canadian Press
Data visualization by Murat Yükselir, Chen Wang and John Sopinski