The Globe and Mail is partnering with CTV and Nanos Research on a nightly survey that tracks Canadians’ preference in federal party and leader.
This page details the survey methodology and contains an archive of the nightly surveys.
Methodology
A national random telephone survey of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The final October 20 survey is a single-day sample, with a total of 739 Canadians. It has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2016 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Survey questions
National ballot: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? [First ranked response]
Preferred Prime Minister: Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for Prime Minister? [ROTATE PARTY LEADERS] [First ranked response]
Survey Archive (by release date)
- Sept. 14: National ballot | Preferred PM
- Sept. 16: National ballot | Preferred PM
- Sept. 17: National ballot | Preferred PM
- Sept. 18: National ballot | Preferred PM
- Sept. 19: National ballot | Preferred PM
- Sept. 20: National ballot | Preferred PM
- Sept. 21: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Sept. 22: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Sept. 23: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Sept. 24: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Sept. 25: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Sept. 26: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Sept. 26: Spotlight on Ontario
- Sept. 27: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Sept. 28: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Sept. 29: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Sept. 30: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 1: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 2: Spotlight on Quebec
- Oct. 2: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 3: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 4: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 5: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 6: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 7: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 8: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 9: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 10: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 11: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 12: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 13: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 14: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 15: No release (previous day was Thanksgiving Monday)
- Oct. 16: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 17: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 18: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 19: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 20: National ballot and Preferred PM
- Oct. 20, final survey: National ballot and Preferred PM