It’s not just Trudeau. The West’s Mavericks are mad at O’Toole, too

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When the Maverick Party was formed 15 months ago to give voice to Western separatists, it was built on a fit of frustration at a country that had re-elected Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. Now they’re mad as hell at Erin O’Toole, too.

Last year, the Maverick folks decided they would focus their efforts in 49 ridings where they could run against Conservative candidates without fear the competition would help elect a Liberal or New Democrat – places where Tories win by big, comfortable margins.

But now Maverick Leader Jay Hill, a former Conservative MP and cabinet minister, says they’re thinking about changing that strategy, and fighting the Tories in more place across the West, opposing them in ridings where Maverick competition might actually cost the Conservatives seats.

“The sense from a lot of diehard, and up to this point at least, loyal Conservative voters, is that the Conservatives have left their base in Western Canada and therefore they do not – and Erin O’Toole does not – deserve the respect of us not running where that could happen,” Mr. Hill said.

Since Mr. O’Toole’s “betrayal” – his decision to propose a carbon levy – they don’t deserve special respect from Westerners, or the Maverick Party, Mr. Hill said.

Now, if you are Mr. O’Toole’s Conservatives, you won’t be shaking in your boots just yet. The Maverick Party is still just a fringe party and still just thinking about getting tough with the Tories.

But surely it’s not good for Mr. O’Toole that more and more former elements of the Conservative coalition aren’t just unhappy with Mr. O’Toole, they also are firing at him.

Conservative pundits are his sharpest critics. Other fringe elements are trying to eat away at his base: People’s Party Leader Maxime Bernier and former Conservative MP Derek Sloan are holding anti-lockdown rallies. Now the Maverick Party is thinking about expanding their Western revolt.

You can blame Mr. O’Toole’s tactical swings and policy flip-flops. But it’s also true that when former leader Andrew Scheer lost the 2019 election, he was blamed for not appealing to Ontario and Quebec voters. The party’s former deputy leader, Lisa Raitt, penned an article last week saying she lost her Milton, Ont., seat because the party did not keep up with the increasing concern for climate change.

You can argue Mr. O’Toole is responding to that. But everyone can see the Conservative coalition is strained.

Mr. Hill argued that Mr. O’Toole’s climate and energy policies are a betrayal that makes the Conservatives no better than the Liberals.

It sounds a lot like the things Reform Party members (like Mr. Hill) were saying in 1990 or 1991, when they blamed Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservative government for selling out the West to win central Canadian votes. It sounds that way to Mr. Hill, too.

“Absolutely,” he said. “It’s déjà vu all over again.”

Mr. Hill, 68, now thinks the Reform Party made its big mistake in 1991 at a convention in Saskatoon, when it decided to start running candidates outside the West.

Despite serving in Stephen Harper’s cabinet from 2006 to 2010, he argues the Canadian system is built so Western interests will always be sold out for Central Canadian votes. The Maverick Party calls for constitutional change, or failing that, Western secession. In the meantime, it would act a little like the Bloc Québécois of the West.

When the Parti Québécois began really campaigning for Quebec separation in the 1970s, its key members were people whose hearts longed for an independent Quebec. Even Mr. Hill admits a (small) preference for fixing Canada rather than leaving it.

But things have changed in a way. The Maverick Party grew from reinvigorated Western alienation at a time when some felt re-electing Mr. Trudeau amounted to rejecting the West – largely because of energy and climate policies. Now some of the anger is bubbling about Mr. O’Toole’s iteration of the Conservative Party.

There isn’t any real sign that the little Maverick Party is going to cost the Conservatives any seats in the West. Not yet anyway. It’s not 1993.

When it comes down to an election, you’d have to think small-C conservatives in Alberta and Saskatchewan will be motivated mainly by their distaste for Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals. Still, as Mr. O’Toole prepares to lead the Conservative movement into an election campaign, he has to wonder how much of it will show up.

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