It’s election day today. If you’re not one of the 4.7 million Canadians who voted at the advance polls last weekend, hopefully you will have time today to cast your ballot.
You can follow the results as they come in at theglobeandmail.com. The first polls to close are in Newfoundland and Labrador at 8:30 p.m. local time (7 p.m. ET).
We will send out a special edition of the Politics Briefing newsletter late tonight, once the results have come in. It’s possible there will be a clear winner tonight – but also possible we could be in for a close result, which could mean the beginning of some legislative horse-trading and no clear idea of who the prime minister will be for weeks to come.
This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Chris Hannay. It is available exclusively to our digital subscribers. If you’re reading this on the web, subscribers can sign up for the Politics newsletter and more than 20 others on our newsletter signup page. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.
KNOW THE ISSUES
RIDINGS TO WATCH
Here are 21 ridings picked by Globe journalists as ones that will tell the story of the election tonight.
KNOW THE LEADERS
THE FINAL NUMBERS
This is the last daily tracking poll, released by Nanos Research on Sunday night:
- Conservatives: 32.5 per cent
- Liberals: 31.7 per cent
- NDP: 20.8 per cent
- Green: 6 per cent
- Bloc Québécois: 7.2 per cent
- People’s Party: 1.5 per cent
Analysis from Nik Nanos: “Prepare for the possibility that in our first-past-the-post system one party may win the popular vote and a different party win the greatest number of seats in the House of Commons.”
The survey was conducted by Nanos Research and was sponsored by The Globe and Mail and CTV. 739 Canadians were surveyed on Oct. 20, 2019. The margin of error is 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Respondents were asked: “If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences?” A report on the results, questions and methodology for this and all surveys can be found at https://tgam.ca/election-polls.
The Globe and Mail editorial board on the election: “The first thing learned: A 40-day campaign isn’t long enough. No, really. The Americans go overboard, with an election period measured in years, but Canada leans too far in the other direction. It’s as if there’s a fear that overexposure to politics will cause the country to break out into a rash. The truth is the opposite: It’s the lack of familiarity – voters with politicians, and politicians with what marketing gurus assure them is a lo-fi electorate – that breeds contempt.”
John Ibbitson on the electorate: “There has never been a time when both of the two major parties were so deeply and equally unpopular on the eve of a federal election. Putting together a government that can obtain a majority of votes in the House on confidence measures could mean concessions to the resurgent Bloc Québécois or New Democratic Party that would leave some Canadians feeling even more estranged.”
Rita Trichur on foreign policy and trade: “Canadians, though, have a real knack for getting in their own way. Not only do we have a long-standing aversion to foreign money, we take a parochial view of globalization despite being a Group of Seven country.”
Tim Querengesser on urban policy: “Experts say cities have long been sidelined in Canadian elections. Voting calculations, Canada’s political structure, the war between regions and jurisdictions over scarce dollars and the creeping spatial specialization of our parties goes a long way to explain why. But given how crucial cities are to Canada’s economic health, experts also say cities need to matter at the ballot box.”
Riley Yesno on young voters: “Still, credit where it’s due: No party before the Liberals has even thought to create an initiative like the youth council. But what good is a voice at the table when your words fall on deaf ears?”
Vicky Mochama on black voters: “The casual assumption that all black people are left and Liberal voters is common. But if you think black voters are solely progressive liberals then you haven’t met a lot of my uncles.”
Greg Donaghy on why leaders who lose should be given a second chance by their parties: “Like children, political leaders benefit from learning from the occasional setback. Defeat builds leaders. It gives them empathy and resilience, perspective and vision, as well as purpose and depth. As my spin coach likes to remind us, ‘What doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger.’ And Canada’s history is chock-full of prime ministers and political leaders whose most significant work emerged in their second acts, in the wake of bitter loss.”
Jean-Pierre Kingsley on not taking our democracy for granted: “So what can serve as our democracy’s best shield? Firm knowledge of our history, a commitment to reason, and a constant scrutiny over a truly accessible and equitable franchise. In short, we must make every effort to ensure the legitimacy of our elections.”