Over half of Canadians want Trudeau, Poilievre replaced as party leaders before next election, poll suggests

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Just over half of Canadians believe the federal Liberals and Conservatives need new leaders heading into the next federal election, according to a new Nanos Research poll.

The poll, conducted for The Globe and Mail, found 53 per cent of respondents were in favour of Justin Trudeau being replaced as Liberal Leader, while 51 per cent say Pierre Poilievre should not lead the Conservatives into the next election.

But the poll also found contrasts in party support for the leaders. Seventy-one per cent of Conservative voters back Mr. Poilievre as party leader in the next election, while 42 per cent of those who usually vote Liberal say they prefer Mr. Trudeau as leader.

The poll asked about each party – and whether for the next federal election respondents would prefer the current leader or someone else.

“This suggests that the Conservatives are more united around their leader than Liberals,” Nik Nanos, the chief data scientist for Nanos Research, said in an e-mail exchange.

Mr. Trudeau has been Leader of the Liberal Party since 2013. At the party’s policy convention in May, he said he will lead the Liberals into the next election.

“My friends, when the election comes, when Canadians need to make a consequential choice in this consequential moment, it will be the honour of my life to lead us through it and continue building a better future,” he told delegates in Ottawa.

Mr. Poilievre was elected leader of the Conservatives in the fall of 2022 on the first ballot, with considerable support.

Mr. Nanos said his research suggests there are issues for both leaders when it comes to the enthusiasm of voters. Canadians would likely welcome adjustments in style and tone for both Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Poilievre, he added.

“The research suggests that there is not much enthusiasm for either Trudeau or Poilievre to lead their parties during the next federal election. Realistically this is a summer of political discontent,” Mr. Nanos said.

“Right now many Canadians are worried about the environment, jobs and the rising cost of living. Solutions on these big questions would likely help Canadians sort through which party they want in power and who they want to lead Canada.”

Mr. Nanos added that although the numbers for Mr. Trudeau are relatively steady compared with its previous survey in December, the proportion of Canadians who would like to see someone other than Mr. Poilievre lead the Conservative Party has increased by six percentage points, from 45 to 51 per cent.

Generationally, the poll found voters over 55 years of age, a traditional stronghold for the Conservatives, are more likely (57 per cent) to want a different Conservative Leader, as compared with younger voters, aged 18 to 34 (45 per cent).

The survey also looked at swing voters, who shift their support among parties. Seventeen per cent of Canadians, Mr. Nanos noted, say there is no party for which they regularly vote. Of swing voters, most support new leaders for the Conservatives and Liberals – 55 per cent for Mr. Poilievre, 52 per cent for Mr. Trudeau and 34 per cent for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.

In the case of Mr. Singh, 30 per cent of those surveyed said they would prefer to have someone else as NDP Leader. Of usual NDP voters, however, Mr. Singh garnered 63-per-cent support.

Nanos conducted the hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,055 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, on June 29 and 30 as part of an omnibus survey. The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus three percentage points,19 times out of 20.