Skip to main content

Canada's new finance minister Bill Morneau is stepping into the role amid great uncertainty for the nation's economic prospects. The economy has perked up in recent months, but languished in a brief technical recession to start the year. Still, the global outlook is shaky, and with abundant supply keeping a lid on oil prices, Canada's resource-rich provinces may struggle for the foreseeable future.

So where is the economy headed? Two new research notes – from Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Bank of Nova Scotia – offer some projections.

Real GDP forecasts

201320142015F2016F
British Columbia1.9%2.6%2.3%2.3%
Alberta3.8%4.4%-1.6%0.4%
Saskatchewan5.0%1.4%-0.6%1.0%
Manitoba2.2%1.1%2.4%2.2%
Ontario1.3%2.3%2.1%2.1%
Quebec1.0%1.4%1.3%1.3%
New Brunswick-0.5%0.0%0.2%0.9%
Nova Scotia0.3%1.6%0.9%1.8%
Prince Edward Island2.0%1.3%1.4%1.6%
Newfoundland & Labrador7.2%-2.9%-3.6%-0.2%
Canada2.0%2.4%1.1%1.7%

Projected jobless rates (annual average, %)

2000-1420142015F2016F2017F
Canada7.16.96.96.96.8
British Columbia6.76.1665.9
Alberta4.84.75.96.25.9
Saskatchewan4.93.84.95.14.9
Manitoba55.45.45.25
Ontario7.27.36.76.76.6
Quebec8.17.77.77.67.5
New Brunswick9.69.910.2109.8
Nova Scotia8.998.78.58.3
Prince Edward Island11.210.610.810.610.5
Newfoundland & Labrador14.411.912.71312.9

Economic outlook (annual % change)

2000-142015F2016F2017F
Real GDP2.21.11.82.3
Consumer Spending2.92.02.12.0
Residential Investment3.83.3-0.4-1.2
Business Investment3.4-7.5-0.43.6
Exports1.12.64.04.6
Imports3.21.02.23.3
Pre-Tax Corporate Profits5.3-10.07.08.5
Report an error Editorial code of conduct
Due to technical reasons, we have temporarily removed commenting from our articles. We hope to have this fixed soon. Thank you for your patience. If you are looking to give feedback on our new site, please send it along to feedback@globeandmail.com. If you want to write a letter to the editor, please forward to letters@globeandmail.com.

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff. Non-subscribers can read and sort comments but will not be able to engage with them in any way. Click here to subscribe.

If you would like to write a letter to the editor, please forward it to letters@globeandmail.com. Readers can also interact with The Globe on Facebook and Twitter .

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff. Non-subscribers can read and sort comments but will not be able to engage with them in any way. Click here to subscribe.

If you would like to write a letter to the editor, please forward it to letters@globeandmail.com. Readers can also interact with The Globe on Facebook and Twitter .

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff.

We aim to create a safe and valuable space for discussion and debate. That means:

  • Treat others as you wish to be treated
  • Criticize ideas, not people
  • Stay on topic
  • Avoid the use of toxic and offensive language
  • Flag bad behaviour

Comments that violate our community guidelines will be removed.

Read our community guidelines here

Discussion loading ...

Latest Videos

To view this site properly, enable cookies in your browser. Read our privacy policy to learn more.
How to enable cookies