One sector that stands out is food and accommodation services, where tens of thousands of new jobs have been created over the past year.JOHN LEHMANN/The Globe and Mail
Jobs data have painted a mixed picture of the labour market this fall, with hiring in some sectors (education and utilities) offsetting weakness in others (construction and manufacturing).
As a result, net employment hasn't changed much in recent months. Wage growth, though muted, continues to outpace inflation.
"Despite some wild prints this year, Canadian employment has averaged a pedestrian 12,600-per-month pace through October, roughly consistent with subdued underlying growth," noted Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns, who expects more of the same in Friday's release of November's numbers.
A year-over-year comparison offers a clearer view of where strengths and weaknesses lie. It shows jobless rates for most demographic groups are lower than a year ago. Both full-time and part-time employment have increased in that time, fuelled by gains from the private sector. Professional services and construction have been growing, while factory employment has shrunk.
One sector that stands out is food and accommodation services. Both Statistics Canada's labour force survey and its separate payrolls data show tens of thousands of new jobs in this area over the past year. A record 1.16 million people now work in this area, as baristas, caterers, hotel cleaners and the like, meaning this sector employs more people than the natural resources, utilities and agricultural industries combined.
While job creation is welcome, and almost any job is better than no work at all, the food and accommodation sector is hardly a well-paid one. It's also the only industry, in Statscan's payrolls data, that has seen a decline in year-over-year earnings, with a 0.8-per-cent drop.
Workers in food and accommodation services now earn, on average, $360.08 a week including overtime – less than half the national average of $918.15 a week.
Looking ahead in Canada's labour market, there are grounds for optimism. Most economists expect activity will pick up next year, spurred by export growth. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady next year before ebbing to about 6.7 per cent in 2015.
Predicting future trends is notoriously tricky, but Workopolis, the online job search site, has given it a stab. The jobs it says will not exist in the next decade are social-media experts, taxi dispatchers, postal workers and retail cashiers. The fastest-growing job titles currently on its site are for financial advisers, sales associates and social workers.
Statistics Canada releases its labour force survey Friday. Economists are expecting 15,000 new jobs with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.9 per cent.
Tavia Grant