The Ambassador Bridge which connects Windsor, Ontario and Detroit, Michigan is the busiest border crossing in North America.GEOFF ROBINS/The Globe and Mail
Windsor, Ont., one of the cities most battered by the recession, will lead the country's growth this year as the economy diversifies and parts of the auto sector rev up.
The city will tally 3.9-per-cent growth this year, the fastest in the country and just ahead of Calgary and Oshawa, a Conference Board of Canada analysis of 27 cities said Tuesday.
That's not to say Windsor will bounce back to pre-recession levels. Even with this year's growth, GDP will remain below its 2007 peak and unemployment will remain in double-digits for the third year in a row, the study noted. News from the auto sector has been mixed, and the manufacturing is still "disabled."
But as the construction and services industry picks up and the city diversifies into making alternative power equipment, "the worst appears to be over for Windsor's economy," the report said. Net out-migration is slowing, it added.
Calgary will register the second-fastest growth rate this year, and the strongest in 2012, driven by rising oil prices. Unlike the last boom, which saw the jobless rate tumble to 3.2 per cent in 2006 and 2007, unemployment this year is forecast at 6.3 per cent - meaning labour shortages and wage inflation will be less of a problem.
"Calgary remains an oil town, even though the energy sector's share of total output has been decreasing," the report said. It sees the construction sector and retail sales as also propelling growth.
The slowest-growing Canadian cities for both this year and next are expected to be Saguenay, Quebec and Thunder Bay, Ontario, the Conference Board's metropolitan outlook said.
Tavia Grant