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British Columbians just finished casting ballots in an election billed by some as a referendum on oil transport. Now it's Bay Street's turn.

Kinder Morgan Inc.'s Canadian arm is close to a $1.75-billion initial public offering of restricted voting shares, proceeds of which will help fund the firm's Trans Mountain pipeline expansion – if the project proceeds as planned.

The shares could hit the market as early as this week, and the offering's success will depend on whether investors are ready to wager that the company, with Ottawa's might, can get construction under way in the face of protests and court challenges.

Depending which side of the debate one leans toward, the $7.4-billion project is a crucial, federally approved piece of energy infrastructure that will open up lucrative new markets for Canadian oil in Asia, thereby bolstering the national economy.

Or it's a steel fuse that will ignite an explosion of carbon into the atmosphere from oil sands projects and put the country's West Coast at untenable risk of oil spills.

Those are the poles between which investors must place their bets on whether the shares are worth the planned price of $19 to $22 each. The offering is being led by the capital-markets arms of Toronto-Dominion Bank and Royal Bank of Canada. Houston-based Kinder Morgan, led by chairman Rich Kinder, will maintain control of the Canadian operation.

Kinder Morgan Canada has operations apart from the contentious project proposal, and they kick out steady cash. They include the initial Trans Mountain pipeline to British Columbia's Lower Mainland from Alberta, oil terminals in both provinces as well as the Cochin that carries condensate to Alberta from Illinois.

But all eyes are on the expansion of Trans Mountain, which won a federal green light last fall following a National Energy Board approval. The clearance garnered applause from the hard-hit energy industry and Alberta Premier Rachel Notley.

To recap, Kinder Morgan plans to nearly triple the capacity of its current pipeline to 890,000 barrels a day by twinning it, thereby sticking within the right-of-way it's used since 1953.

Building across the Rockies is anything but an easy engineering feat, but from a political standpoint it will probably cause fewer headaches for the proponents than the last few kilometres into the Burnaby, B.C., area, in Vancouver's harbour and through a twisting tanker route to the Pacific.

Premier Christy Clark's Liberals agreed to support the project after extracting enhanced marine oil spill response from the federal government and annual payments from Kinder Morgan.

In the May 9 B.C. vote, it was Metro Vancouver where Liberals lost major support to New Democrat opponents, who came out against the project. Ms. Clark currently leads a minority government in the province, but tabulation of absentee ballots and recounts of close races are under way and the balance of power could tip. It's never been clear what roadblocks the province might erect if it felt so inclined.

In its prospectus, Kinder Morgan has warned of legal and political risks as the company aims to start trenching as early as September. In court, several challenges to the approvals of the project are in play, launched by First Nations, environmental groups and municipal governments, such as Vancouver. Those have been amalgamated into one big federal case to be heard in October.

Meanwhile, the Alberta Securities Commission has agreed to consider a challenge to the Kinder Morgan IPO launched by Greenpeace. The environmental group says the prospectus inadequately discloses climate change risks to investors. That's a long shot, sure, but the move only adds to the uncertainty over project completion.

Largely missing in all of this has been the man who basically made the project his baby by approving it – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. He sold it to Canadians as part of a bargain aimed at balancing resource development and trade with environmental protection and the fight against climate change. He said it would not have been possible without Alberta's moves to limit carbon emissions. So far he's avoided being the front man.

Now, investors are faced with betting on a company whose marquee project is not a sure thing. We're about to see what odds they're laying.

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