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Capitol Hill insiders are betting this is the week the U.S. Senate finally okays a monster financial reform overhaul bill.

It would mark the last serious hurdle for the legislation, which seeks to redraw the rules of bank regulation in the United States.

Another event this week is likely to pass with considerably less fanfare. On Thursday, U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. chairwoman Sheila Bair provides her quarterly checkup of the banking industry, detailing the financial health of the industry and updating its list of problem institutions.

This picture is not likely to be pretty. The last time she reported, U.S. authorities had just finished seizing the 140th failed bank of 2008 and the number of institutions in trouble had shot up to 702, the most since the savings-and-loan crisis of the early 1990s.

This week's report is likely to be much worse as the problems in the banking industry filter down to ever-smaller institutions, which tend to be more heavily exposed to commercial real estate and construction lending.

Through last Friday, 72 banks had failed in the United States this year. Experts said the tally for the year could top 200.

In a recent interview, Ms. Bair said that what troubles her in the short term is the daily strain of shutting down and auctioning off failed banks. But what keeps her up at night is "making sure the party doesn't start again," she told her home-state newspaper, the Kansas City Star.

And that, she said, is why "we need financial regulatory reform."

But as the Senate completes its work on the financial reform package, it's not clear the legislation would prevent another "party," as Ms. Bair puts it.

The rhetoric of the bill's backers sounds good. They argue the legislation would rein in Wall Street, put an end to financial institutions that are "too big to fail," protect consumers and prevent the next crisis.

Reality is unlikely to be so clear-cut. The basic structure of the U.S. banking industry and its supervisors remains largely intact. Regulators will still face a nightmarish array of institutions to watch over. There will still be roughly 8,000 banks in the United States - from systemically important mega-banks such as Bank of America and Citibank, to tiny mom-and-pop operations on Main Street.

Nothing in the bill specifically limits the size of the big banks, nor the sheer number of smaller lenders for that matter.

Instead, the legislation promises a better early-warning system and an orderly "funeral" process for winding down large banks that threaten the financial system, without taxpayer-financed bailouts.

But there will still be institutions whose activities are too woven into the financial system to simply let fail. And it's no secret who they are, giving them an unfair advantage in raising capital.

To a degree, the legislation would rein in Wall Street. There would be more transparency of financial derivatives. And under the so-called Volcker rule, banks would be barred from trading on their own accounts or investing in hedge funds and private equity firms.

But no one is predicting the demise of Goldman Sachs and the other big investment banks, who helped engineer the leverage machine that brought the economy to the brink.

And what would protect savers and borrowers? Yes, there's a new consumer regulator. But nothing in the legislation would prevent the kind of Wild West mortgage lending that went on during the housing boom.

Another frequently cited culprit of the financial crisis is the credit-rating industry. Again, the legislation doesn't address the fundamental conflict of interest that exists between investment dealers, who pay raters to determine whether their securities are credit-worthy.

The bill also tackles the perverse incentives on Wall Street, where compensation too often rewards short-term gains over long-term financial health.

Here again, the promise exceeds the reality. The centrepiece of the legislation's section on executive compensation gives shareholders the right to demand non-binding votes on pay.

Indeed, the banking industry may look a lot like it does now when U.S. President Barack Obama signs the legislation.

So don't be surprised if you get an invitation to the next party.

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Tickers mentioned in this story

Study and track financial data on any traded entity: click to open the full quote page. Data updated as of 18/04/24 7:00pm EDT.

SymbolName% changeLast
BAC-N
Bank of America Corp
+1.53%35.77
GS-N
Goldman Sachs Group
-0.2%403.11

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