Lex is a premium daily commentary service from the Financial Times. It helps readers make better investment decisions by highlighting key emerging risks and opportunities.
The oil driller Transocean is poised to initiate a dividend that makes Carl Icahn, its largest shareholder with a 6-per-cent stake, a winner. It is not, however, quite the gusher he had hoped. Transocean, known for operating the BP rig that exploded in 2010, leading to the largest offshore oil spill in history, rejected Mr. Icahn's call for a $4 (U.S.)-a-share annual dividend. But it has countered with a proposal of $2.24, or $800-million in total.
Yet it is hard to justify any fixed cash return to Transocean shareholders. The company has stated that capital expenditures in 2013 will be $3-billion, compared with $1.3-billion in 2012. Wall Street has thus estimated 2013 free cash flow to be essentially nil. A dividend may require the company to tap its cash balance of $5-billion.
However, Transocean also carries $11-billion in debt. The credit rating agencies have ranked it just above the cutoff for junk status, and expressed misgivings about reallocating cash away from debt reduction and fleet upgrades. Maintaining high-grade borrowing status isn't just about vanity and lower interest costs. It is also about maintaining credibility with customers and other counterparties.
If returning cash is a must, a buyback would be a better way to do it – allowing Transocean to reward shareholders opportunistically, when both cash flow is plentiful and market conditions indicate their equity is undervalued (though history shows that companies tend to time buybacks poorly).
However, the likelihood of abandoning the dividend is low. According to Swiss law, which governs Transocean, shareholders will vote on the amount. The shares are still down a third from the predisaster level, and it is natural that downtrodden shareholders should demand cash in hand. They will get it, for better or worse. For that, they can thank Mr. Icahn.