Trade talks follow a predictable pattern. Negotiators quietly plug away at the easy issues for months. As talks intensify, someone inevitably walks away from the table, and the various sides blame each other. At the 11th hour, the deal comes together and victory is declared.
But there are always losers – because that's how deals get done. Countries make gains by giving something up.
For Canada, that means it's compensation time.
And so it is with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership – a sweeping agreement in principle reached this week that will bind Canada to 10 other Pacific Rim countries.
Some of the biggest losers from the deal – Canada's dairy, chicken and egg farmers – are already making loud noises about reparations, which could wind up costing taxpayers billions of dollars.
The Egg Farmers of Canada, which warned this week that the trade deal will cost its members nearly $1-billion over several years, is calling on Ottawa to "expedite work on mitigation measures."
The Chicken Farmers of Canada are similarly demanding that the government make good on the promises by the Conservatives when the original agreement, then known as the TPP, was reached in 2015.
The Dairy Farmers of Canada – representing the largest of the supply-managed agricultural sectors – insist they will hold Ottawa to its word that it wants "a vibrant, strong and growing dairy sector."
The dairy farmers have previously estimated that losses from the TPP could reach $250-million a year (representing the loss of roughly 3.25 per cent of their market to producers in Australia and New Zealand). Combined with concessions on cheese and milk made in the earlier European free-trade deal, dairy farmers say they will be as much as $357-million a year in the hole.
And that's before any concessions Canada might make to the U.S. in the North American free-trade agreement negotiations.
If this all sounds expensive, it will be.
But these are early days. And so far, federal officials are being cautious about making promises about money.
"We look forward to discussing what this deal means with the sector and how we can work with them," said Joseph Pickerill, spokesman for federal Trade Minister François-Philippe Champagne. "Those discussions are happening."
Even the Conservatives are taking up the compensation cause for dairy, chicken and egg farmers. Leader Andrew Scheer has vowed to put pressure on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau when the House of Commons returns from its Christmas break next week.
"Once again, the Liberals are breaking their promises. Producers can count on [the Conservative Party of Canada] to stand up for them," Mr. Scheer tweeted this week.
It's worth recalling what governments have promised farmers in the past. Stephen Harper's Conservative government announced a $4.3-billion package of measures in October, 2015. The money was to be doled out to thousands of farmers over 15 years and was aimed at compensating for both the TPP and the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). Dairy farmers, for example, would have received more than $2,000 per cow, or $177,000 for the average dairy farm.
The Liberals dialled that back after taking office in late 2015, saying at the time that the TPP was not yet a done deal. They began rolling out a $350-million program to help dairy farmers and processors innovate, linked specifically to CETA.
That's only a fraction of the ultimate price. Each bit of market these highly protected farm groups cede to foreign producers threatens their ability to continue controlling production and prices within Canada. That, in turn, undermines the value of the quota farmers must own to produce within the supply management system. In 2015, the combined value of quota held by dairy, egg and chicken farmers was just shy of $35-billion. It's an open question whether Ottawa is responsible for making them whole if that quota becomes worthless.
The supply-managed sectors are a regular target in trade talks because they are some of the few heavily protected sectors left in Canada. The system depends on steep tariff walls, tight production controls and fixed prices paid to farmers. For decades, other major agricultural exporters have put pressure on Canada to open its market.
Defending farmers won't come cheap.
Canadians could be writing large cheques, for years to come.