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CRTC chairman Jean Pierre Blais comments on Thursday, Oct. 18 after the regulator blocked the BCE-Astral merger.

Dave Chan/The Globe and Mail

If regulators won't let BCE Inc. buy Astral Media, the most likely outcome is a breakup that won't generate as much value for shareholders, Scotia Capital estimates.

In a report published after BCE's plan to buy Astral for $50 a share was quashed by the national broadcast regulator, Scotia estimates the breakup value of Astral at about $46 per share.

"We have assessed the potential of a sale of Astral and do not see a single bidder emerging to purchase all of the assets," Scotia analyst Paul Steep said in a report

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The most valuable piece would be Astral's specialty TV channels, which Mr. Steep estimates would fetch $1.1-billion based on an 8.5 times multiple and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $131-million.

Radio would garner about $856-million ($107-million of Ebitda at an 8 times multiple), Pay TV is worth $789-million ($99-million of Ebitda at 8 times) and outdoor advertising $337-million ($37-million of Ebitda and a 9 times multiple).

Mr. Steep does not speculate on who might be interested in buying each asset.

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