These are stories Report on Business is following Tuesday, Sept. 13. Get the top business stories through the day on BlackBerry or iPhone by bookmarking our mobile-friendly webpage.
Economists flag recession risks Economists today flag the possibility of a second slump - either we're in it or maybe we're headed for it - as the United States and Europe drag Canada down.
Canada had recovered smartly from the financial crisis and recession, and the labour market had bounced back to the envy of many other countries. Then the economy contracted in the second quarter, while jobs growth has stalled in the last two months.
That means that if the economy were to shrink again in the current quarter, Canada would meet the technical meaning of a recession. Scotia Capital economists Derek Holt and Karen Cordes Woods flag that possibility in a report today.
"This wasn't supposed to happen," they wrote. "Many of the world's troubles were supposed to be focused upon Europe and the U.S. Yet, we're faced with the distinct possibility that the Canadian economy could be the first to stumble. It contracted ever so slightly in Q2 (-0.4 per cent) but ... a reasonable scenario could well have the economy facing another contraction this quarter that cannot for a minute be ruled out."
Not everyone thinks that - many see growth coming back in the third quarter, which, by the way, ends this month, meaning a technical recession would be over before Statistics Canada even reports it. Economists at Toronto-Dominion Bank, though, are fretting about whether Canada may be headed for another slump, pegging the chances of a contraction in the fourth quarter of this year and first quarter of next at 40 per cent.
"Given the fragility of economic growth in the coming year, any significant nasty surprise could conceivably push real GDP into negative territory," TD economists Craig Alexander, Derek Burleton and Diana Petramala said in a new forecast.
"However, should a contraction occur, it would be dramatically milder than the experience of 2008-09 and the weakness should pass relatively quickly."
Whether growth is, or is going to be, mildly negative or marginally higher may be beside the point. We're in for a slower recovery than initially expected and unemployment is projected to creep back up, possibly to 7.5 per cent or higher.
The TD economists project the jobless rate will remain above 7 per cent through 2013, averaging 7.5 per cent this year, 7.4 per cent in 2012, and 7.1 per cent a year later.
- Technical recession possible: Scotiabank
- Ottawa vows action on jobs as hiring slumps
- For young people, Ontario's election is about jobs
- RBC cuts outlook for Canada, others
Income inequality on rise The gap between the rich and the poor is widening faster in Canada than in many other countries, the Conference Board of Canada warns.
"Canada had the fourth largest increase in income inequality among its peers," the group's president, Anne Golden, said today as the Conference Board released a global study.
"Even though the U.S. currently has the largest rich-poor income gap among these countries, the gap in Canada has been rising at a faster rate."
Between the mid-1990s and the 200s, the group said, inequality widened in 10 of 17 countries, narrowed in five and was unchanged in Norway and Japan.
The Conference Board report came as a new look by Statistics Canada showed we're all a tad poorer, largely because of falling stock prices.
National net worth rose 1.2 per cent in the second quarter to $6.4-trillion, though household net worth slipped 0.3 per cent as falling equity prices more than offset rising house prices.
"Per capita household net worth fell from $185,500 in the first quarter to $184,300 in the second quarter, marking the first decline since the second quarter of 2010," the federal agency said.
Personal debt levels were also up in the quarter, and debt rose faster than personal disposable income.
"A lower for longer interest rate environment poses the risk that indebtedness could rise further, putting significant additional strain on households once interest rates do begin to climb," TD's Ms. Petramala warned.
- Income inequality rising quickly in Canada
- Read the Conference Board report
- Household debt rises in second quarter
Court upholds convictions The Ontario Court of Appeal today upheld the 2009 fraud convictions of the founders of Canada's Livent Inc., but cut their prison sentences, saying they were too harsh.
The court ruled Garth Drabinsky and Myron Gottlieb were properly convicted in 2009 for misstating the financial results of the live theatre company, The Globe and Mail's Janet McFarland reports.
Mr. Drabinsky had been sentenced to seven years, and has now had his sentence reduced to five. Mr. Gottlieb had received a six-year sentence, which has been cut to four years.
Both men were required to surrender to custody on Monday evening in Toronto. The appeal court decision means they will remain behind bars to begin serving their sentences unless they decide to try to appeal to the Supreme Court of Canada. It is not known yet where they will serve their prison terms.
The world's banker One wonders what the world will look like when the music stops.
China, the economic engine of the post-recession era, has already been on a buying spree, striking deals around the world largely in the resources sector. It's also the biggest foreign holder of America's debt, and has helped buoy other countries and companies. Now, it it's also poised to come to Rome's aid as Italy becomes the latest victim of Europe's debt crisis.
Italy confirmed today that Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti met this month with Chinese officials, who hold massive foreign exchange reserves, to drum up support for its bonds. It's not clear how much of a difference this will make to Italy, but it's yet another signal of China's increasing importance in a world in turmoil.
"News that Beijing and Rome were in talks over the potential purchase of Italian debt inspired a late 200-point recovery in the Dow Jones on Monday, with U.K. shares pencilling in sharp gains at the open as a result," said Ben Critchley, sales trader at IG Index.
"This came – but also evaporated very quickly. There is the feeling that we have seen these stories before during the first stages of the Greek crisis, as well as speculation that the amounts earmarked for purchase are not that material."
Does China even have the heft? With $3-trillion (U.S.) in currency reserves, Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics doesn't think so.
"These maths suggest that China is just not big enough to move the Italian bond market much, or to save the entire economy," the chief economist said in a research note today.
"For what it is worth, it should be clear that the ECB does not have the muscle to do this, either. Altogether, the bond markets of the PIIGS add up to €3-trillion. China's participation would be nice and would help, but China alone cannot pick up the slack if the world decides it ain't buying any more Euroland paper."
- China's interest in Italian debt is purely business
- Chinese buyer says no layoffs planned at Wescast
Italy in the spotlight As The Globe and Mail's Eric Reguly reports today, Italy, with €1.6-trillion of debt, threatens to become a far bigger problem than Greece, Portugal or Ireland.
That became even clearer today as Italian bond yields spiked after a widely watched auction, reaching their highest in the history of the euro zone, 5.6 per cent on five-year notes.
To put it in perspective, it's not at distressed levels. Consider that the yield on Greek two-year paper topped 76 per cent today.
Italy's Parliament is expected to approve harsh budget measures tomorrow, but observers question whether that will be enough.
"An Italian Treasury official says that Italy will start talks in the next few days on possible further measures to cut debt and spur growth," noted Elsa Lignos, senior currency strategist at RBC in London.
"It is also considering sales of state-owned real estate and other assets. A Treasury official also says the government is optimistic that Moody's will not downgrade Italy. While Moody's must feel pressure to maintain its credibility with at least a one-notch cut, given all that has happened since Italy was put on review three months ago, a single notch-cut and stable outlook would still be a better-than-expected outcome. The decision is due by this weekend. To avoid further ratings cuts, Italy still needs to speed up the pace of budget consolidation."
- Europe struggles to contain debt crisis
- Italy's debt woes fuel new fears
- What a Greek default would look like
In Economy Employers expect the hiring climate to hold steady in the fourth quarter, according to the latest Manpower Inc. survey. The Canadian Press reports.
In International Business The chief executive of Volkswagen insists Europe's biggest car maker is not suffering growing pains in light of the delay of a planned merger with sports car maker Porsche and the near collapse of a co-operation agreement with Japan's Suzuki. Chris Bryant of The Financial Times reports from Frankfurt.
In Globe Careers What do members of the clergy, firefighters and physical therapists have in common? Check out the list of the 10 happiest jobs.
From today's Report on Business