Briefing highlights
- Scotiabank’s currency, economic outlook
- Global stocks on rise so far
- Markets at a glance
- Black Friday sales expected to rise
- Sobeys cuts staff amid digital push
Whither the Canadian dollar
It's admittedly a long time span, but Bank of Nova Scotia says we can expect a flatlining Canadian dollar for at least the next five years.
In a new long-term outlook, Scotiabank sees the loonie ending this year at just over 78 cents (U.S.).
It projects an 80-cent currency by the end of each of 2018 and 2019, about 82 cents by the end of 2020 and 2021, and just shy of 81.5 cents by late 2022.
Of course, there are many things that could, and no doubt will, affect the value of the loonie, including oil prices, the path of Bank of Canada interest rate hikes and, nearer term, the outcome of the North American free-trade agreement talks.
Scotiabank looks at several factors in what it calls its global macroeconomic model to come to these and other conclusions, and says such long-term projections are "subject to significant uncertainty" because of their nature.
The bank's analysts also expect economic growth to slow rather markedly, from a projected 3.1 per cent this year to 2.2 per cent in 2018 and 1.5 per cent in each of the following four years.
"In Canada, the torrid growth of 3.1 per cent expected for 2017 is coming on the back of strong consumption and business investment, as well as exports in the first half," Scotiabank said.
"As consumption growth retreats to a more sustainable pace in 2018, overall real GDP growth is expected to moderate to 2.2 per cent."
Then we're in for a much slower pace.
"Beyond 2018, growth is expected to slow in the U.S. and Canada, as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada gradually normalize their policy rates … to quell modest but rising inflationary pressures, long-term bond yields rise to more historically normal levels, and, in Canada, the boost from federal government stimulus measures fades," Scotiabank said.
And just a wee warning here: "Slowing growth beyond 2018 and the uncertainty around the outlook means that there is an increased risk of low growth or recession (i.e., two quarters of negative growth) in 2019-22."
Read more
- Get your loons in a row: ‘Investors should protect themselves against NAFTA termination risk’
- ’Buckle up’: It would take $100 oil to stop the Canadian dollar from skidding to 75¢
Markets at a glance
"Today is Black Friday in the U.S., the beginning of the Christmas shopping season, and nearly 70 per cent of Americans are expected to hit the online or traditional shops over the weekend," said London Capital Group senior market analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya.
"The pre-sales data indicate a better performance compared to last year; early numbers point at a solid 18-per-cent year-on-year increase in November sales so far."
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Sobeys cuts staff
Grocery chain Sobeys Inc. is laying off more than 800 of its employees – almost 20 per cent of its office staff across the country – in its efforts to cut costs and turn around its struggling operations while preparing for a more digital future, The Globe and Mail's Marina Strauss reports.
The staff layoffs, to be announced internally, are part of Sobeys's major revamping, which it has dubbed Project Sunrise, and is aimed at slashing $500-million annually in two years.
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What to watch for today
The calendar is rather light given that it's Black Friday in the U.S.
That means you can watch for shoppers duking it out at Wal-Mart.