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Business Briefing Why the Canadian dollar has been marching smartly higher

Briefing highlights

  • Where the loonie may be headed
  • Bank of Canada warns on housing debt
  • Sinkhole: A scene I'd love to see
  • Video: Why rudeness at work is contagious

Loonie on stronger path

The Canadian dollar has been marching higher of late, and is now in sight of the 80-cent mark again.

It’s down so far today, trading between 78.4 cents (U.S.) and 78.9 cents, helped along by generally stronger oil prices and “softening” expectations about the rate-hike path of the Federal Reserve.

“The appetite in the loonie should further rise with oil consolidating above $50 a barrel,” said London Capital Group market analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya.

“Above $50 a barrel, we could expect a rising linear relationship between the evolution in the oil market and the loonie,” she added.

“Should the current positive trend in the oil market bring traders to revisit and revise their yearend forecasts to $55/60 a barrel, we could expect the loonie to take over the 0.80 level.”

The “softening Fed expectations” are adding to the currency’s strength heading into next week’s meeting of the U.S. central bank, Ms. Ozkardeskaya added.

Today, though, oil prices eased off somewhat, though crude was still holding above $50, so we’ll see how it all plays out.

A scene I'd love to see ...

Photo illustration

BoC warns on housing

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz says recent home price gains in the red-hot Toronto and Vancouver markets are unsustainable, increasing the probability of an eventual correction.

Economic “fundamentals” don’t justify a continuation of recent price gains in those two cities, Mr. Poloz warned in statement accompanying the central bank’s twice-yearly review of risks buffeting the Canadian financial system, The Globe and Mail’s Barrie McKenna writes.

“This suggests that prospective home buyers and their lenders should not extrapolate recent real estate performance into the future when contemplating a transaction,” Mr. Poloz said.

Video: Why rudeness at work is contagious

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