Twenty-eight NFL drafts have come and gone since the Miami Dolphins last used a first-round pick on a quarterback, a fellow named Dan Marino.
As exasperating as that sounds, as negligent as it seems when it comes to stocking the most important position on the field, the Dolphins need to push that streak to 29 Thursday by passing on Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill.
This is a view based on a simple assessment of the raw talent available beyond Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, who will be long gone when Miami's No. 8-overall pick comes around, and backed up by the patterns of the most-successful franchises through the years.
The Detroit Lions and Tennessee Titans, for instance, have led the way by using four of their first-round picks on quarterbacks since 1983, the year Marino fell to Miami late in the first round.
The Lions and Titans have no Super Bowl titles, and that's going all the way back to the Titans' roots in Houston as the Oilers. Even worse, Detroit has been to the postseason just seven times in the 28-year period we are examining here.
Going for the quick fix at quarterback based on draft-combine workouts clearly hasn't worked out for those two treadmill teams, who more often than anyone else throw their first-round picks down the wishing well.
Now, we swing the pendulum to the opposite extreme, looking for teams that steadfastly resist the siren call of the U.S. college quarterback, at least when it comes to attaching first-round value to players who probably aren't ready to start.
Only once since 1983 have the New York Giants spent a first-rounder on a quarterback, and that was a prearranged trade where the San Diego Chargers took Eli Manning No. 1 overall and sent him to the Giants for their top pick, Philip Rivers, and other draft choices. That decision, based on the strongest of convictions rather than guesswork, worked out pretty well for the Giants, and so have all the other drafts in which New York selected another position first.
The proof is in the Giants' four Super Bowl titles since 1983.
Of course, anything to do with pro football is an inexact science. There are outliers in every category. I'm going to give you two lists, though, to demonstrate which philosophy generally has been the most productive when it comes to taking quarterbacks high in the draft.
Since 1983, the following teams have used a first-round pick on a quarterback on three or more occasions: Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, Chicago Bears, Washington Redskins and Denver Broncos.
On the other hand, here are the teams that have drafted only one quarterback in the first round during that same period: New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, the Giants, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, St. Louis Rams and Houston Texans.
From that second pool, 19 Super Bowl championship teams have popped up in the last 28 years, and 33 Super Bowl appearances.
Where do the Dolphins fit in? Well, the Kansas City Chiefs have gone just as long as Miami without taking a quarterback in the first round, and the New Orleans Saints are the only team to go longer, having last pulled the trigger on Archie Manning in 1971.
Not sure what conclusions to draw from that exceedingly stubborn trio, except everybody's trying to avoid the deadly first-round whiff. Nothing seems to set a team back further.
Back now to Tannehill, who has a Super Bowl arm and a Meineke Car Care Bowl résumé.
Dolphins offensive co-ordinator Mike Sherman is the one who will settle this matter, because as Tannehill's former head coach at Texas A&M he knows the guy better than anybody. After watching Tannehill go 1-5 against ranked teams as a senior and 7-6 overall, it's unlikely Sherman is willing to stake his own future with the Dolphins on a gamble like this.
Dolphins owner Stephen Ross, who according to unnamed sources for Sports Illustrated and Pro Football Talk is lobbying hard for Tannehill, will have to trust his football guys on this one.
Issuing an order to take Tannehill would smack of desperation from a businessman whose product is tanking and needs an infusion of flash.
Tannehill doesn't solve that problem. He's no Peyton Manning, who Ross wanted as a free agent but couldn't get. He's not even Matt Moore, the Dolphins incumbent quarterback, whose 25 NFL starts look pretty solid compared to Tannehill's 19 in college.
We're talking about a project here, one that will take longer to become successful than Dolphins general manager Jeff Ireland is likely to be around, and it's Ireland who is running the Miami draft.
Like it or not, drafting the wrong quarterback in the first round will always be worse than drafting none at all.
The New York Times News Service