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Chicago Blackhawks' Jonathan Toews handles the puck as Tampa Bay Lightning's Victor Hedman defends during the first period in Game 3 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final.Charles Rex Arbogast/The Associated Press

Victor Hedman.

There's a reason we're hearing that name so much in the Stanley Cup final, and it's not simply the overhyping of a player that has been underhyped – to invent a word – for far too long in the NHL.

The big Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman has been incredible, whether you're using the eye test, the numbers test, or any other test short of one for tuberculosis. Not only is he unbelievably mobile for a big man – part of a new breed of agile giants that includes Nashville's Seth Jones – but he has outstanding vision coming out of his zone and isn't afraid of pinching down low to create offence.

There was some question coming into this final whether Hedman could dominate games the way he had in earlier rounds against a team as good as the Chicago Blackhawks, with players like Duncan Keith and Jonathan Toews (among others) who are capable of taking over the ice as well as anyone in the league.

Well, through four games of the final, Hedman has answered those questions decisively, to the point that it's a different game when he's on the ice and when he's not.

You don't have to take my word for it. If you look at puck possession data for these playoffs, after 24 games, Hedman is at just shy of 56 per cent, trailing only Chicago's Marian Hossa among those logging big minutes on the Lightning or Blackhawks.

When Hedman isn't on the ice, the Lightning are way down at 44.6 per cent – meaning they're spending an inordinate amount of time in their own end.

That 11-per-cent difference is huge. In fact, it's nearly double the next closest player on these two teams. This deep into the postseason, we're not dealing with small samples, either.

Hedman has more than kept that up in the final. Here's a breakdown of his even strength minutes and puck possession percentage against Chicago's top 15 players (by minutes) through the first four games:

 

Hedman vs

Minutes

Possession

1

Brent Seabrook

44

60%

2

Patrick Kane

41

57%

3

Jonathan Toews

40

59%

4

Brandon Saad

38

60%

5

Duncan Keith

37

60%

6

Johnny Oduya

35

70%

7

N. Hjalmarsson

32

64%

8

Marian Hossa

25

57%

9

Andrew Shaw

16

52%

10

Brad Richards

14

62%

11

Patrick Sharp

14

71%

12

Marcus Kruger

14

67%

13

Andrew Desjardins

13

68%

14

Antoine Vermette

12

71%

15

Teuvo Teravainen

11

63%

Lightning coach Jon Cooper was hard matching Hedman against Chicago's best players when he had home-ice advantage in Games 1 and 2, and it paid off in getting him up against Toews for about 12 minutes per game.

On the road in Games 3 and 4, that fell to closer to eight minutes, which is a significant positive given Toews's line – which is typically dominant in terms of controlling play, regardless of who's on the wing – has been anything but in this series.

Possession isn't everything in a game, obviously. You want to get to the slot, not just into the offensive zone. But teams that have that big of an advantage – 60 per cent or more – are getting a lot more looks at the net (shots and attempts), which speaks to their ability to breakout of their end, maintain control through the neutral zone and hold the offensive blueline once they're over it.

Both these teams are elite at doing so, but Tampa has been noticeably better so far in the series. Hedman (and to a lesser extent Anton Stralman) is the biggest reason why.

The Blackhawks normally get that advantage with Keith on the ice, but there's only one puck and they have to rely on their teammates to push things in the right direction. If Hedman and Co. have it 60 per cent of the time, Keith can't, and you have to wonder if his incredible minute burden (nearly 30 a game, every game) is adding up.

Keith also isn't getting as strong of a partner on every shift as Hedman, which is another key factor.

Here's what his matchups look like through the first four games:

 

Keith vs

Minutes

Possession

1

Victor Hedman

37

40%

2

Anton Stralman

36

53%

3

Jason Garrison

33

64%

4

Braydon Coburn

32

54%

5

Ondrej Palat

31

55%

6

Valtteri Filppula

31

46%

7

Steven Stamkos

30

48%

8

Nikita Kucherov

30

53%

9

Alex Killorn

30

42%

10

Tyler Johnson

28

56%

11

Matthew Carle

24

61%

12

Ryan Callahan

23

49%

13

Cedric Paquette

20

50%

14

J.T. Brown

20

77%

15

Brian Boyle

15

61%

Keith's biggest inroads, in other words, are when Tampa's depth D pairings are on the ice. Those numbers for Garrison and Carle, in particular, are ugly.

The Lightning will probably want to keep Brown far, far away from him as well.

The good news is Chicago was able to get Keith free from Hedman-Stralman more often in Games 3 and 4. They also got the matchup of Keith on the triplets – especially Kucherov – much more with last change.

The bad news? Two of the final three games (if necessary) are in Tampa.

The last chart I'll throw in here is a brief look at the forward matchups. Much has been made of Toews going head-to-head with rookie Cedric Paquette, but the reality is he has played more against six other Lightning forwards at even strength.

Even when he has been on the ice against Paquette (only five minutes a game at evens), Toews has been on the winning end of the battle for the black disk.

 

Toews vs

Minutes

Possession

1

Victor Hedman

40

41%

2

Anton Stralman

37

47%

3

Ryan Callahan

24

47%

4

Nikita Kucherov

23

51%

5

Ondrej Palat

22

59%

6

J.T. Brown

22

62%

7

Tyler Johnson

21

58%

8

Alex Killorn

20

43%

9

Jason Garrison

19

57%

10

Cedric Paquette

19

61%

11

Valtteri Filppula

18

46%

12

Steven Stamkos

18

50%

13

Braydon Coburn

14

73%

14

Matthew Carle

13

74%

15

Andrej Sustr

10

60%

This paints a similar story to Keith's chart, which is understandable given the overlap in their minutes. Toews is struggling against Hedman, succeeding against the triplets, and absolutely slaughtering Coburn and Carle.

Toews's minutes against Kucherov and Palat were way, way up in the games in Chicago, which shows how closely coach Joel Quenneville wants his Selke nominee to be watching them. To a lesser extent, Toews also played more against Coburn, Garrison and Stamkos than in Games 1 and 2.

Overall, what these numbers paint is a picture of a series where the matchups are of vital importance. We don't always see swings this pronounced with certain players up against others, but that's happening here with such talented, Norris Trophy-calibre players at the top end of the roster.

If these trends continue, you have to like the Lightning's chances of winning two out of the next three games. And if they do, Hedman should win the Conn Smythe Trophy, regardless of his point total, for what he's accomplished.

But the Blackhawks have two things working for them: 1) They know how to adjust in-series to account for where they're being beaten, perhaps better than anyone and 2) They've played their best games in elimination games for years and years.

The best from Keith and Toews could definitely still be coming. We haven't seen it yet.

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